Kris Bubic
SPKansas City Royals · AL · Age 28 · Bats L / Throws L · 50.3 IP · 207 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 51 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
28
−4.9 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — horizontal break vs baseline: 2.5 actual vs 4.3 deserved.
Most likely driver: command erosion — losing the zone, not the stuff (39% confidence).
W-L
3-2
SV
0
IP
50.3
K
51
BB
26
ERA
4.11
WHIP
1.23
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.52
xwOBA.327
xBA.240
xSLG.395
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.11
wOBA.286
BA.200
SLG.322
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.4137
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.0419
BA against vs xBA−.04011
SLG against vs xSLG−.0739
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 41.2%(+3.1) | 91.8lg 94.5 | −0.3 | 1081 | 2398 | 17.2"lg 15.4 | 2.5"lg 7.8 |
| Changeup | 20.0%(−1.1) | 85.9lg 86.6 | +0.4 | 3793 | 1536 | 0.0"lg 4.1 | 9.5"lg 14.0 |
| Sweeper | 17.3%(−3.5) | 82.4lg 82.5 | −0.5 | 4914 | 2609 | -4.1"lg 0.9 | 13.8"lg 13.7 |
| Sinker | 12.7%(+6.2) | 91.2lg 94.0 | −0.4 | 1150 | 2251 | 8.4"lg 8.4 | 12.2"lg 15.0 |
| Slider | 8.9%(−4.6) | 85.3lg 86.2 | −0.1 | 3135 | 2576 | -2.0"lg 1.5 | 2.5"lg 4.1 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
49 pctl · +0.4° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
42
xwOBA Against
42
K%
71
BB%
15
Whiff%
63
FB Velocity
14
Hard-Hit% Against
43
Spin Rate
77
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%