Justin Wrobleski
SPQualifiedLos Angeles Dodgers · NL · Age 26 · Bats L / Throws L · 100.3 IP · 399 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 23 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
37
+8.3 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — fastball velo vs baseline: 94.3 actual vs 96.0 deserved.
Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (54% confidence).
W-L
10-2
SV
0
IP
100.3
K
73
BB
20
ERA
2.69
WHIP
1.02
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.14
xwOBA.314
xBA.264
xSLG.416
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA2.69
wOBA.260
BA.219
SLG.323
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−1.4512
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.0545
BA against vs xBA−.0458
SLG against vs xSLG−.0935
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 50.0%(+21.4) | 94.3lg 94.5 | −1.7 | 4481 | 2450 | 16.1"lg 15.4 | 6.2"lg 7.8 |
| Slider | 29.9%(+5.1) | 86.2lg 86.2 | −1.6 | 4549 | 2453 | -0.1"lg 1.5 | 3.6"lg 4.1 |
| Sinker | 7.0%(−13.6) | 93.5lg 94.0 | −1.5 | 3977 | 2202 | 10.0"lg 8.4 | 13.9"lg 15.0 |
| Curveball | 5.4%(−3.2) | 74.5lg 80.3 | −6.9 | 601 | 2210 | -5.9"lg -10.3 | 6.4"lg 8.8 |
| Changeup | 5.1%(+1.8) | 85.7lg 86.6 | −2.4 | 3512 | 1479 | 5.3"lg 4.1 | 13.9"lg 14.0 |
| Sweeper | 1.9% | 84.9lg 82.5 | — | 7983 | 2646 | —lg 0.9 | —lg 13.7 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
43 pctl · −0.7° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
55
xwOBA Against
55
K%
22
BB%
95
Whiff%
11
FB Velocity
47
Hard-Hit% Against
24
Spin Rate
87
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%