Justin Bruihl
RPQualifiedSt. Louis Cardinals · NL · Age 29 · Bats L / Throws L · 47.7 IP · 214 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 247 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
12
+0.4 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (30% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle −3.3°.
W-L
0-0
SV
0
IP
47.7
K
32
BB
19
ERA
3.59
WHIP
1.36
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.28
xwOBA.319
xBA.256
xSLG.349
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.59
wOBA.310
BA.256
SLG.344
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.6929
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.00938
BA against vs xBA+.00049
SLG against vs xSLG−.00542
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 45.5%(−5.6) | 90.3lg 94.0 | +0.1 | 696 | 2166 | 1.8"lg 8.4 | 16.0"lg 15.0 |
| Sweeper | 37.1%(−4.5) | 77.9lg 82.5 | −0.5 | 431 | 2548 | -1.4"lg 0.9 | 18.0"lg 13.7 |
| ChangeupNEW | 9.8% | 80.2lg 86.6 | — | 366 | 1431 | 0.1"lg 4.1 | 11.0"lg 14.0 |
| 4-Seam FastballNEW | 6.2% | 91.6lg 94.5 | — | 891 | 2241 | 12.2"lg 15.4 | 5.6"lg 7.8 |
| Cutter | 1.5%(−5.8) | 86.9lg 89.5 | −0.6 | 1336 | 2426 | —lg 7.9 | —lg 2.4 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle −3.3°
Arm slot
18 pctl · −3.3° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
49
xwOBA Against
49
K%
10
BB%
58
Whiff%
6
FB Velocity
12
Hard-Hit% Against
63
Spin Rate
32
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%