Juan Morillo

RPQualified

Arizona Diamondbacks · NL · Age 27 · Bats R / Throws R · 39.7 IP · 162 BF

↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 67 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−6.3 last 7 days

BUYThe process is ahead of the results — whiff% vs baseline: 31.8 actual vs 26.6 deserved.

No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.

W-L

3-4

39.7

ERA

2.95

WHIP

1.08

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA2.47

xwOBA.245

xBA.180

xSLG.265

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA2.95

wOBA.256

BA.199

SLG.291

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA+0.4868

wOBA against vs xwOBA+.01165

BA against vs xBA+.01974

SLG against vs xSLG+.02665

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
4-Seam Fastball	47.6%(+1.4)	98.7lg 94.5	−0.3	9715	2228	16.3"lg 15.4	5.0"lg 7.8
Changeup	19.0%(+5.7)	92.6lg 86.6	+0.7	9768	2257	7.6"lg 4.1	16.2"lg 14.0
Slider	17.0%(−4.1)	84.8lg 86.2	−4.5	2482	2739	-7.4"lg 1.5	8.9"lg 4.1
Sinker	16.3%(−3.1)	98.7lg 94.0	−0.2	9747	2183	12.6"lg 8.4	13.9"lg 15.0

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

81 pctl · +0.4° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	31.8	26.6	+5.2	95	89
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	9.3	13.2	−3.9	94	88
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	4.0	7.8	−3.8	89	79
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	28.4	23.7	+4.7	88	76
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	32.3	38.8	−6.5	87	73
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	5.0	5.3	−0.3	25	50
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.199	.180	+.019	74	49
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	16.3	16.5	−0.2	29	42
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	98.7	99.0	−0.3	32	37
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	2.95	2.47	+0.48	68	37
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.256	.245	+.011	65	30
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.291	.265	+.026	65	30
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2228	2246	−18	36	29
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	@ ATL	L 1-4	1.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 98.0 mph
Jul 18	@ NYM	W 9-7	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 98.9 mph
Jul 15	@ TEX	W 9-4	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 99.0 mph
Jul 12	vs LAD	L 5-6	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 99.0 mph
Jul 10	vs TEX	L 1-3	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 98.7 mph
Jul 7	vs OAK	W 4-3	2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 98.9 mph
Jul 6	@ CWS	L 4-9	0.2 IP, 2 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 99.1 mph
Jul 4	@ NYM	L 4-5	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 97.9 mph
Jul 2	vs BOS	W 8-6	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 99.0 mph
Jun 30	vs COL	W 6-2	2.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 98.1 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

4-Seam Fastball

47.6%(+1.4)

98.7lg 94.5

−0.3

9715

2228

16.3"lg 15.4

5.0"lg 7.8

Changeup

19.0%(+5.7)

92.6lg 86.6

+0.7

9768

2257

7.6"lg 4.1

16.2"lg 14.0

Slider

17.0%(−4.1)

84.8lg 86.2

−4.5

2482

2739

-7.4"lg 1.5

8.9"lg 4.1

Sinker

16.3%(−3.1)

98.7lg 94.0

−0.2

9747

2183

12.6"lg 8.4

13.9"lg 15.0

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

31.8

26.6

+5.2

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

9.3

13.2

−3.9

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

4.0

7.8

−3.8

K% vs baseline

Contact

28.4

23.7

+4.7

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

32.3

38.8

−6.5

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

5.0

5.3

−0.3

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.199

.180

+.019

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

16.3

16.5

−0.2

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

98.7

99.0

−0.3

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

2.95

2.47

+0.48

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.256

.245

+.011

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.291

.265

+.026

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2228

2246

−18

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

@ ATL

L 1-4

1.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 1 BB

Jul 18

@ NYM

W 9-7

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 0 BB

Jul 15

@ TEX

W 9-4

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Jul 12

vs LAD

L 5-6

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 10

vs TEX

L 1-3

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 7

vs OAK

W 4-3

2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 2 BB

Jul 6

@ CWS

L 4-9

0.2 IP, 2 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 4

@ NYM

L 4-5

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 2

vs BOS

W 8-6

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jun 30

vs COL

W 6-2

2.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K, 1 BB