JT Brubaker

RPQualified

San Francisco Giants · NL · Age 32 · Bats R / Throws R · 49.3 IP · 197 BF

↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 40 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−2.0 last 7 days

SELLThe results are ahead of the process — spin rate vs baseline: 2111.0 actual vs 2238.0 deserved.

No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.

W-L

0-0

49.3

ERA

2.74

WHIP

1.14

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA4.52

xwOBA.327

xBA.254

xSLG.425

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA2.74

wOBA.273

BA.208

SLG.329

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−1.789

wOBA against vs xwOBA−.0545

BA against vs xBA−.0468

SLG against vs xSLG−.0964

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Sinker	48.5%(−0.8)	93.7lg 94.0	+0.3	4357	2217	9.2"lg 8.4	15.5"lg 15.0
Slider	25.7%(+1.4)	87.2lg 86.2	+0.9	6473	2578	2.5"lg 1.5	0.1"lg 4.1
Changeup	11.7%(−3.7)	88.7lg 86.6	+0.8	7354	2051	5.4"lg 4.1	16.2"lg 14.0
Curveball	8.2%(−2.2)	82.1lg 80.3	+0.5	6756	2714	-6.6"lg -10.3	12.1"lg 8.8
4-Seam Fastball	5.9%(+5.3)	93.1lg 94.5	−0.6	2621	2111	14.1"lg 15.4	8.0"lg 7.8

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

78 pctl · −0.6° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2111	2238	−127	3	94
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.329	.425	−.096	4	92
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.273	.327	−.054	5	90
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.208	.254	−.046	8	85
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	2.74	4.52	−1.78	9	82
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	93.1	93.7	−0.6	20	60
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	21.2	23.9	−2.7	21	57
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	6.3	7.8	−1.5	71	43
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	10.2	10.3	−0.1	69	38
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	36.6	38.8	−2.2	65	30
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	17.8	18.8	−1.0	36	27
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	14.1	14.1	±0.0	55	10
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	8.0	8.0	±0.0	50	0
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs CLE	L 1-2	1.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 93.1 mph
Jul 17	@ COL	W 5-0	2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 92.7 mph
Jul 15	@ COL	W 9-2	1.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 93.0 mph
Jul 13	@ SD	L 4-6	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 93.3 mph
Jul 11	@ DET	W 3-2	1.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 93.2 mph
Jul 9	@ STL	W 3-1	2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 92.6 mph
Jul 8	vs PIT	W 9-8	2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 93.4 mph
Jul 5	@ CHC	W 3-0	2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 92.2 mph
Jul 4	@ OAK	W 7-3	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 93.4 mph
Jul 3	@ CHC	L 4-7	0.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 92.3 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Sinker

48.5%(−0.8)

93.7lg 94.0

+0.3

4357

2217

9.2"lg 8.4

15.5"lg 15.0

Slider

25.7%(+1.4)

87.2lg 86.2

+0.9

6473

2578

2.5"lg 1.5

0.1"lg 4.1

Changeup

11.7%(−3.7)

88.7lg 86.6

+0.8

7354

2051

5.4"lg 4.1

16.2"lg 14.0

Curveball

8.2%(−2.2)

82.1lg 80.3

+0.5

6756

2714

-6.6"lg -10.3

12.1"lg 8.8

4-Seam Fastball

5.9%(+5.3)

93.1lg 94.5

−0.6

2621

2111

14.1"lg 15.4

8.0"lg 7.8

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2111

2238

−127

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.329

.425

−.096

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.273

.327

−.054

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.208

.254

−.046

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

2.74

4.52

−1.78

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

93.1

93.7

−0.6

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

21.2

23.9

−2.7

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

6.3

7.8

−1.5

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

10.2

10.3

−0.1

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

36.6

38.8

−2.2

K% vs baseline

Contact

17.8

18.8

−1.0

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

14.1

±0.0

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

8.0

±0.0

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs CLE

L 1-2

1.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 17

@ COL

W 5-0

2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 15

@ COL

W 9-2

1.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Jul 13

@ SD

L 4-6

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 11

@ DET

W 3-2

1.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 9

@ STL

W 3-1

2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Jul 8

vs PIT

W 9-8

2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 5

@ CHC

W 3-0

2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 3 BB

Jul 4

@ OAK

W 7-3

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 3

@ CHC

L 4-7

0.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 1 BB