JR Ritchie
SPAtlanta Braves · NL · Age 23 · Bats R / Throws R · 50.3 IP · 220 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 106 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
22
−8.9 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.
W-L
1-2
SV
1
IP
50.3
K
45
BB
30
ERA
4.29
WHIP
1.39
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.56
xwOBA.328
xBA.235
xSLG.380
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.29
wOBA.315
BA.216
SLG.362
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.2743
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.01332
BA against vs xBA−.01924
SLG against vs xSLG−.01834
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CurveballNEW | 26.5% | 83.0lg 80.3 | — | 7991 | 2633 | -11.7"lg -10.3 | 13.0"lg 8.8 |
| SinkerNEW | 20.4% | 94.3lg 94.0 | — | 5306 | 2319 | 6.0"lg 8.4 | 16.1"lg 15.0 |
| 4-Seam FastballNEW | 18.0% | 94.5lg 94.5 | — | 4862 | 2361 | 14.3"lg 15.4 | 9.6"lg 7.8 |
| ChangeupNEW | 16.8% | 88.4lg 86.6 | — | 6988 | 1698 | 0.2"lg 4.1 | 14.1"lg 14.0 |
| CutterNEW | 10.1% | 89.2lg 89.5 | — | 4368 | 2487 | 7.5"lg 7.9 | 1.5"lg 2.4 |
| SliderNEW | 8.2% | 85.1lg 86.2 | — | 2862 | 2560 | 0.2"lg 1.5 | 4.4"lg 4.1 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
no prior-season baseline
16 pctl ·
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
41
xwOBA Against
41
K%
33
BB%
10
Whiff%
32
FB Velocity
51
Hard-Hit% Against
60
Spin Rate
69
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%