José A. Ferrer

RPQualified

Seattle Mariners · AL · Age 26 · Bats L / Throws L · 41.0 IP · 181 BF

— NeutralHOLDRank 579 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

+1.0 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (35% confidence).

W-L

3-1

41.0

ERA

2.85

WHIP

1.37

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA3.22

xwOBA.279

xBA.224

xSLG.336

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA2.85

wOBA.311

BA.270

SLG.362

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−0.3739

wOBA against vs xwOBA+.03282

BA against vs xBA+.04690

SLG against vs xSLG+.02665

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Sinker	71.6%(+9.8)	97.4lg 94.0	−0.3	9283	2136	6.2"lg 8.4	18.6"lg 15.0
Changeup	16.1%(−5.8)	87.0lg 86.6	−0.8	5280	2292	4.6"lg 4.1	19.1"lg 14.0
Slider	12.2%(+4.7)	87.9lg 86.2	−1.8	7435	2458	0.1"lg 1.5	2.8"lg 4.1

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

32 pctl · +0.4° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	9.7	16.5	−6.8	0	99
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2272	2138	+134	99	98
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	95.7	97.9	−2.2	2	97
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	5.3	8.1	−2.8	10	81
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.270	.224	+.046	90	80
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	20.8	24.8	−4.0	15	71
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.311	.279	+.032	82	64
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	5.4	7.8	−2.4	82	63
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	34.6	38.8	−4.2	77	55
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	6.6	4.9	+1.7	23	54
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	19.3	21.9	−2.6	28	44
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.362	.336	+.026	65	30
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	2.85	3.22	−0.37	39	22
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs CWS	L 5-9	1.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.2 mph
Jul 18	vs TB	W 5-0	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.4 mph
Jul 15	@ PHI	L 1-8	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 95.8 mph
Jul 12	vs PIT	W 9-5	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 96.2 mph
Jul 11	@ CWS	L 5-9	1.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 96.0 mph
Jul 9	@ PIT	W 4-0	1.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 96.0 mph
Jul 8	vs KC	W 3-2	0.2 IP, 2 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 95.2 mph
Jul 7	vs CIN	W 4-1	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 95.4 mph
Jul 6	vs CIN	W 7-4	1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 95.2 mph
Jul 5	vs KC	W 6-5	1.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.0 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Sinker

71.6%(+9.8)

97.4lg 94.0

−0.3

9283

2136

6.2"lg 8.4

18.6"lg 15.0

Changeup

16.1%(−5.8)

87.0lg 86.6

−0.8

5280

2292

4.6"lg 4.1

19.1"lg 14.0

Slider

12.2%(+4.7)

87.9lg 86.2

−1.8

7435

2458

0.1"lg 1.5

2.8"lg 4.1

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

9.7

16.5

−6.8

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2272

2138

+134

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

95.7

97.9

−2.2

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

5.3

8.1

−2.8

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.270

.224

+.046

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

20.8

24.8

−4.0

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.311

.279

+.032

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

5.4

7.8

−2.4

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

34.6

38.8

−4.2

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

6.6

4.9

+1.7

K% vs baseline

Contact

19.3

21.9

−2.6

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.362

.336

+.026

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

2.85

3.22

−0.37

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs CWS

L 5-9

1.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 1 BB

Jul 18

vs TB

W 5-0

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 15

@ PHI

L 1-8

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 12

vs PIT

W 9-5

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 11

@ CWS

L 5-9

1.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 9

@ PIT

W 4-0

1.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 8

vs KC

W 3-2

0.2 IP, 2 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 7

vs CIN

W 4-1

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 0 BB

Jul 6

vs CIN

W 7-4

1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 5

vs KC

W 6-5

1.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 1 BB