Jonathan Bowlan
RPQualifiedPhiladelphia Phillies · NL · Age 29 · Bats R / Throws R · 32.7 IP · 132 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 35 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
34
+7.5 last 7 days
BUYThe process is ahead of the results — fastball velo vs baseline: 97.3 actual vs 95.5 deserved.
No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.
W-L
2-0
SV
0
IP
32.7
K
38
BB
8
ERA
3.03
WHIP
1.07
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA2.63
xwOBA.253
xBA.198
xSLG.297
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.03
wOBA.269
BA.225
SLG.325
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+0.4066
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.01669
BA against vs xBA+.02779
SLG against vs xSLG+.02867
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 43.7%(+10.1) | 97.3lg 94.5 | +1.8 | 9022 | 2407 | 18.2"lg 15.4 | 8.0"lg 7.8 |
| Slider | 16.2%(−15.0) | 86.9lg 86.2 | +1.1 | 5843 | 2493 | -1.2"lg 1.5 | 2.8"lg 4.1 |
| Changeup | 14.5%(+6.1) | 90.5lg 86.6 | +2.1 | 9061 | 1564 | 6.0"lg 4.1 | 11.7"lg 14.0 |
| Sinker | 13.8%(−3.4) | 97.3lg 94.0 | +1.2 | 9219 | 2312 | 12.8"lg 8.4 | 15.5"lg 15.0 |
| SweeperNEW | 10.2% | 84.9lg 82.5 | — | 7983 | 2581 | -1.2"lg 0.9 | 15.1"lg 13.7 |
| Curveball | 1.7%(−7.9) | 82.4lg 80.3 | +1.4 | 7168 | 2512 | —lg -10.3 | —lg 8.8 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
62 pctl · +0.6° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
95
xwOBA Against
95
K%
90
BB%
88
Whiff%
93
FB Velocity
90
Hard-Hit% Against
93
Spin Rate
79
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%