John King
RPQualifiedMiami Marlins · NL · Age 31 · Bats L / Throws L · 40.0 IP · 149 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 281 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
10
+5.8 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: arm slot dropped — deliberate change or mechanical compensation (28% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle −3.2°.
W-L
6-2
SV
1
IP
40.0
K
30
BB
10
ERA
2.48
WHIP
0.75
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA3.31
xwOBA.283
xBA.209
xSLG.363
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA2.48
wOBA.223
BA.149
SLG.269
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.8326
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.0604
BA against vs xBA−.0604
SLG against vs xSLG−.0945
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 32.6%(−26.7) | 90.5lg 94.0 | −2.5 | 749 | 2182 | 1.6"lg 8.4 | 12.5"lg 15.0 |
| Slider | 21.5%(+7.2) | 82.4lg 86.2 | −1.9 | 724 | 2792 | -1.0"lg 1.5 | 7.0"lg 4.1 |
| Changeup | 20.2%(+0.8) | 83.5lg 86.6 | −2.2 | 1488 | 1542 | -0.9"lg 4.1 | 13.7"lg 14.0 |
| Sweeper | 14.0%(+13.9) | 81.6lg 82.5 | ±0.0 | 3483 | 2837 | -1.3"lg 0.9 | 15.5"lg 13.7 |
| Curveball | 10.0%(+4.5) | 78.9lg 80.3 | −1.2 | 3133 | 2848 | -11.1"lg -10.3 | 11.4"lg 8.8 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 1.7%(+0.3) | 90.5lg 94.5 | −3.1 | 337 | 2055 | —lg 15.4 | —lg 7.8 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle −3.2°
Arm slot
17 pctl · −3.2° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
80
xwOBA Against
80
K%
31
BB%
82
Whiff%
38
FB Velocity
7
Hard-Hit% Against
68
Spin Rate
4
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%