Jhoan Duran
RPQualifiedPhiladelphia Phillies · NL · Age 28 · Bats R / Throws R · 34.0 IP · 131 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 260 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
11
−6.5 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics (24% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +5.3°.
W-L
1-3
SV
24
IP
34.0
K
50
BB
6
ERA
1.32
WHIP
0.91
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA2.29
xwOBA.236
xBA.206
xSLG.277
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA1.32
wOBA.224
BA.202
SLG.250
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.9722
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.01234
BA against vs xBA−.00443
SLG against vs xSLG−.02726
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splitter | 45.2%(+5.3) | 97.4lg 86.7 | −0.4 | 9954 | 1726 | 3.8"lg 3.1 | 14.7"lg 11.1 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 27.4%(−7.7) | 100.2lg 94.5 | −0.4 | 9939 | 2078 | 13.2"lg 15.4 | 13.2"lg 7.8 |
| Curveball | 11.5%(−7.7) | 88.4lg 80.3 | +0.8 | 9953 | 2668 | -7.2"lg -10.3 | 2.1"lg 8.8 |
| Sweeper | 9.4%(+3.6) | 88.9lg 82.5 | +1.7 | 9914 | 2599 | -1.4"lg 0.9 | 9.6"lg 13.7 |
| ChangeupNEW | 6.5% | 89.0lg 86.6 | — | 7768 | 958 | 1.3"lg 4.1 | 9.8"lg 14.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle +5.3°
Arm slot
50 pctl · +5.3° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
98
xwOBA Against
98
K%
99
BB%
96
Whiff%
99
FB Velocity
99
Hard-Hit% Against
9
Spin Rate
6
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%