Jesús Luzardo
SPQualifiedPhiladelphia Phillies · NL · Age 28 · Bats L / Throws L · 115.3 IP · 483 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 8 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
47
−2.8 last 7 days
BUYThe process is ahead of the results — hard-hit% against vs league: 30.7 actual vs 38.8 deserved.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (69% confidence).
W-L
9-4
SV
0
IP
115.3
K
143
BB
37
ERA
3.43
WHIP
1.21
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA2.91
xwOBA.266
xBA.207
xSLG.304
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.43
wOBA.291
BA.234
SLG.349
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+0.5269
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.02577
BA against vs xBA+.02780
SLG against vs xSLG+.04576
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweeper | 37.4%(+5.3) | 86.4lg 82.5 | +0.3 | 9207 | 2425 | -1.0"lg 0.9 | 8.2"lg 13.7 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 24.9%(−8.4) | 97.1lg 94.5 | +0.6 | 8815 | 2246 | 14.0"lg 15.4 | 11.7"lg 7.8 |
| Changeup | 19.8%(+2.5) | 86.2lg 86.6 | −1.7 | 4317 | 1673 | 2.0"lg 4.1 | 15.3"lg 14.0 |
| Sinker | 17.8%(+7.0) | 96.0lg 94.0 | +0.2 | 7975 | 2246 | 6.2"lg 8.4 | 17.8"lg 15.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
26 pctl · −2.0° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
89
xwOBA Against
89
K%
92
BB%
71
Whiff%
93
FB Velocity
88
Hard-Hit% Against
91
Spin Rate
34
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%