Jeremiah Estrada
RPQualifiedSan Diego Padres · NL · Age 27 · Bats S / Throws R · 20.7 IP · 82 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 224 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
13
−4.2 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (20% confidence).
W-L
2-2
SV
1
IP
20.7
K
23
BB
10
ERA
3.48
WHIP
1.11
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA3.59
xwOBA.294
xBA.213
xSLG.342
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.48
wOBA.266
BA.183
SLG.296
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.1149
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.02817
BA against vs xBA−.03015
SLG against vs xSLG−.04617
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 57.8%(+1.0) | 95.8lg 94.5 | −2.1 | 7111 | 2123 | 19.8"lg 15.4 | 1.5"lg 7.8 |
| Splitter | 32.0%(+8.8) | 82.2lg 86.7 | −1.5 | 688 | 1293 | 7.4"lg 3.1 | 13.1"lg 11.1 |
| Slider | 10.2%(−9.8) | 86.0lg 86.2 | −2.5 | 4133 | 2232 | 0.7"lg 1.5 | 6.5"lg 4.1 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
100 pctl · +2.4° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
71
xwOBA Against
71
K%
87
BB%
16
Whiff%
95
FB Velocity
72
Hard-Hit% Against
86
Spin Rate
10
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%