Jeff Hoffman
RPQualifiedToronto Blue Jays · AL · Age 33 · Bats R / Throws R · 42.3 IP · 188 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 28 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
35
+2.1 last 7 days
BUYThe process is ahead of the results — whiff% vs baseline: 37.3 actual vs 31.6 deserved.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (42% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle −4.9°.
W-L
5-6
SV
5
IP
42.3
K
66
BB
16
ERA
4.46
WHIP
1.39
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA3.10
xwOBA.274
xBA.203
xSLG.311
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.46
wOBA.314
BA.259
SLG.392
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+1.3685
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.04086
BA against vs xBA+.05693
SLG against vs xSLG+.08188
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 40.9%(+11.0) | 86.9lg 86.2 | −0.1 | 5843 | 2771 | -1.0"lg 1.5 | 3.2"lg 4.1 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 31.5%(−5.9) | 96.6lg 94.5 | +0.2 | 8175 | 2539 | 16.3"lg 15.4 | 13.7"lg 7.8 |
| Splitter | 22.3%(−1.5) | 89.7lg 86.7 | −0.2 | 8165 | 1732 | 1.7"lg 3.1 | 15.1"lg 11.1 |
| Sinker | 5.3%(−3.6) | 96.2lg 94.0 | −0.2 | 8238 | 2451 | 12.7"lg 8.4 | 16.7"lg 15.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle −4.9°
Arm slot
30 pctl · −4.9° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
86
xwOBA Against
86
K%
98
BB%
63
Whiff%
98
FB Velocity
82
Hard-Hit% Against
89
Spin Rate
95
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%