Jason Alexander
SPHouston Astros · AL · Age 33 · Bats R / Throws R · 18.3 IP · 84 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 562 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
1
−3.1 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (25% confidence).
W-L
1-1
SV
0
IP
18.3
K
14
BB
8
ERA
9.33
WHIP
1.58
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.71
xwOBA.333
xBA.258
xSLG.416
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA9.33
wOBA.390
BA.280
SLG.560
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+4.6298
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.05792
BA against vs xBA+.02277
SLG against vs xSLG+.14495
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changeup | 35.1%(+2.4) | 80.4lg 86.6 | +0.1 | 415 | 1818 | —lg 4.1 | —lg 14.0 |
| Sinker | 23.4%(−16.5) | 91.0lg 94.0 | +0.1 | 981 | 2058 | —lg 8.4 | —lg 15.0 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 23.1%(+13.0) | 91.5lg 94.5 | −0.4 | 787 | 2316 | —lg 15.4 | —lg 7.8 |
| Cutter | 7.4%(+6.4) | 85.4lg 89.5 | −1.8 | 578 | 2276 | —lg 7.9 | —lg 2.4 |
| Sweeper | 6.0%(−10.0) | 78.6lg 82.5 | +0.1 | 810 | 2563 | —lg 0.9 | —lg 13.7 |
| Slider | 5.0%(+4.8) | 81.8lg 86.2 | −0.6 | 534 | 2413 | —lg 1.5 | —lg 4.1 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
No movement data for this arsenal (below the pitch-count minimum).
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
12 pctl · +1.8° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
36
xwOBA Against
36
K%
15
BB%
38
Whiff%
13
FB Velocity
11
Hard-Hit% Against
60
Spin Rate
55
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%