Jacob Misiorowski

SPQualified

Milwaukee Brewers · NL · Age 24 · Bats R / Throws R · 115.0 IP · 439 BF

↑ Positive regressionSTRONG BUYRank 1 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−0.1 last 7 days

BUYThe process is ahead of the results — whiff% vs baseline: 37.7 actual vs 29.7 deserved.

No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.

W-L

10-4

115.0

173

ERA

1.57

WHIP

0.77

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA2.02

xwOBA.221

xBA.169

xSLG.245

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA1.57

wOBA.210

BA.152

SLG.232

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−0.4535

wOBA against vs xwOBA−.01135

BA against vs xBA−.01726

SLG against vs xSLG−.01337

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
4-Seam Fastball	62.9%(+7.7)	100.5lg 94.5	+1.2	9957	2621	15.6"lg 15.4	10.9"lg 7.8
CutterNEW	14.2%	96.0lg 89.5	—	9874	2579	7.1"lg 7.9	1.5"lg 2.4
Curveball	10.7%(−3.9)	88.0lg 80.3	+0.9	9921	2238	-8.4"lg -10.3	6.0"lg 8.8
Slider	10.6%(−13.7)	92.2lg 86.2	−1.9	9964	2505	3.6"lg 1.5	3.4"lg 4.1
Changeup	1.6%(−4.3)	92.5lg 86.6	+0.2	9732	2037	—lg 4.1	—lg 14.0

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

25 pctl · +0.1° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	37.7	29.7	+8.0	99	97
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	6.4	11.0	−4.6	96	93
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	3.2	7.8	−4.6	95	90
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	100.5	99.3	+1.2	95	89
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	39.4	32.0	+7.4	94	89
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	10.9	9.4	+1.5	90	80
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2621	2589	+32	86	72
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	34.1	38.8	−4.7	80	61
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	15.6	15.9	−0.3	25	50
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.152	.169	−.017	26	47
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	1.57	2.02	−0.45	35	31
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.210	.221	−.011	35	29
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.232	.245	−.013	37	27
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs TB	L 3-8	6.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 101.9 mph
Jul 14	@ DET	W 6-4	5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 101.1 mph
Jul 9	@ SEA	W 5-4	4.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 100.9 mph
Jul 3	vs HOU	W 3-2	6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 100.1 mph
Jun 28	vs CHC	W 3-2	6.2 IP, 2 ER, 11 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 100.7 mph
Jun 24	@ LAA	W 6-5	6.2 IP, 2 ER, 11 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 100.2 mph
Jun 19	vs BOS	L 4-7	4.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 99.8 mph
Jun 15	@ NYY	L 2-10	4.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 100.3 mph
Jun 11	vs MIA	L 2-10	4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 100.0 mph
Jun 5	vs MIA	L 2-8	6.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 100.1 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

100

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

4-Seam Fastball

62.9%(+7.7)

100.5lg 94.5

+1.2

9957

2621

15.6"lg 15.4

10.9"lg 7.8

CutterNEW

14.2%

96.0lg 89.5

—

9874

2579

7.1"lg 7.9

1.5"lg 2.4

Curveball

10.7%(−3.9)

88.0lg 80.3

+0.9

9921

2238

-8.4"lg -10.3

6.0"lg 8.8

Slider

10.6%(−13.7)

92.2lg 86.2

−1.9

9964

2505

3.6"lg 1.5

3.4"lg 4.1

Changeup

1.6%(−4.3)

92.5lg 86.6

+0.2

9732

2037

—lg 4.1

—lg 14.0

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

37.7

29.7

+8.0

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

6.4

11.0

−4.6

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

3.2

7.8

−4.6

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

100.5

99.3

+1.2

K% vs baseline

Contact

39.4

32.0

+7.4

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

10.9

9.4

+1.5

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2621

2589

+32

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

34.1

38.8

−4.7

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

15.6

15.9

−0.3

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.152

.169

−.017

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

1.57

2.02

−0.45

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.210

.221

−.011

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.232

.245

−.013

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs TB

L 3-8

6.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K, 3 BB

Jul 14

@ DET

W 6-4

5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 2 BB

Jul 9

@ SEA

W 5-4

4.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 2 BB

Jul 3

vs HOU

W 3-2

6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K, 2 BB

Jun 28

vs CHC

W 3-2

6.2 IP, 2 ER, 11 K, 2 BB

Jun 24

@ LAA

W 6-5

6.2 IP, 2 ER, 11 K, 3 BB

Jun 19

vs BOS

L 4-7

4.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 1 BB

Jun 15

@ NYY

L 2-10

4.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 0 BB

Jun 11

vs MIA

L 2-10

4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB

Jun 5

vs MIA

L 2-8

6.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K, 1 BB