Jacob deGrom
SPQualifiedTexas Rangers · AL · Age 38 · Bats L / Throws R · 105.3 IP · 424 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 471 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
4
−1.0 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics (43% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +3.2°.
W-L
7-6
SV
0
IP
105.3
K
128
BB
24
ERA
3.76
WHIP
1.05
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA3.51
xwOBA.291
xBA.231
xSLG.398
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.76
wOBA.278
BA.219
SLG.379
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+0.2560
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.01333
BA against vs xBA−.01232
SLG against vs xSLG−.01933
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 42.1%(−3.9) | 97.2lg 94.5 | −0.3 | 8919 | 2471 | 16.8"lg 15.4 | 8.3"lg 7.8 |
| Slider | 36.0%(−1.6) | 91.1lg 86.2 | +0.7 | 9762 | 2659 | 3.0"lg 1.5 | 4.8"lg 4.1 |
| Changeup | 13.6%(+2.3) | 89.8lg 86.6 | ±0.0 | 8500 | 1606 | 2.5"lg 4.1 | 13.2"lg 14.0 |
| Curveball | 6.4%(+1.3) | 80.7lg 80.3 | −0.2 | 5158 | 2758 | -5.3"lg -10.3 | 12.4"lg 8.8 |
| Sinker | 1.8% | 96.2lg 94.0 | — | 8238 | 2330 | —lg 8.4 | —lg 15.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle +3.2°
Arm slot
39 pctl · +3.2° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
74
xwOBA Against
74
K%
94
BB%
91
Whiff%
96
FB Velocity
89
Hard-Hit% Against
13
Spin Rate
89
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%