Hunter Dobbins
SPSt. Louis Cardinals · NL · Age 26 · Bats R / Throws R · 22.3 IP · 95 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 237 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
12
+0.1 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: arm slot dropped — deliberate change or mechanical compensation (23% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle −4.3°.
W-L
1-1
SV
1
IP
22.3
K
23
BB
10
ERA
4.03
WHIP
1.39
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA5.14
xwOBA.346
xBA.269
xSLG.447
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.03
wOBA.329
BA.247
SLG.424
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−1.1119
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.01728
BA against vs xBA−.02222
SLG against vs xSLG−.02330
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 34.9%(−5.6) | 95.5lg 94.5 | ±0.0 | 6765 | 2379 | 14.4"lg 15.4 | 1.0"lg 7.8 |
| Slider | 19.6%(−7.5) | 88.6lg 86.2 | +0.9 | 8278 | 2624 | 3.4"lg 1.5 | 5.1"lg 4.1 |
| Sinker | 13.1%(+11.7) | 95.4lg 94.0 | +0.4 | 7236 | 2169 | 9.4"lg 8.4 | 12.7"lg 15.0 |
| Sweeper | 12.6%(+2.3) | 82.5lg 82.5 | +1.2 | 5034 | 2705 | 1.7"lg 0.9 | 15.7"lg 13.7 |
| Splitter | 11.3%(+2.6) | 89.2lg 86.7 | −1.3 | 7798 | 2136 | 4.7"lg 3.1 | 15.1"lg 11.1 |
| Curveball | 8.5%(−3.5) | 80.0lg 80.3 | +1.3 | 4288 | 2569 | -10.7"lg -10.3 | 6.2"lg 8.8 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle −4.3°
Arm slot
76 pctl · −4.3° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
26
xwOBA Against
26
K%
68
BB%
27
Whiff%
31
FB Velocity
69
Hard-Hit% Against
7
Spin Rate
74
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%