Griffin Jax
SPQualifiedTampa Bay Rays · AL · Age 31 · Bats R / Throws R · 75.0 IP · 312 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 167 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
16
+4.2 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.
W-L
5-7
SV
0
IP
75.0
K
77
BB
26
ERA
4.08
WHIP
1.27
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA5.31
xwOBA.351
xBA.274
xSLG.461
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.08
wOBA.321
BA.250
SLG.424
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−1.2317
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.03016
BA against vs xBA−.02420
SLG against vs xSLG−.03721
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweeper | 26.0%(−18.0) | 87.9lg 82.5 | +0.1 | 9776 | 3011 | -0.5"lg 0.9 | 12.3"lg 13.7 |
| Changeup | 22.5%(+0.2) | 91.2lg 86.6 | −1.1 | 9366 | 1867 | 3.9"lg 4.1 | 15.9"lg 14.0 |
| Sinker | 20.4%(+8.7) | 95.6lg 94.0 | −0.9 | 7563 | 2513 | 11.2"lg 8.4 | 16.4"lg 15.0 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 18.0%(+0.3) | 96.2lg 94.5 | −0.8 | 7725 | 2525 | 17.7"lg 15.4 | 7.8"lg 7.8 |
| Curveball | 8.7%(+8.5) | 85.1lg 80.3 | −1.6 | 9161 | 3014 | -13.9"lg -10.3 | 4.9"lg 8.8 |
| Cutter | 4.4%(+0.4) | 92.8lg 89.5 | −0.6 | 9134 | 2681 | —lg 7.9 | —lg 2.4 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
69 pctl · −0.3° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
23
xwOBA Against
23
K%
72
BB%
65
Whiff%
90
FB Velocity
78
Hard-Hit% Against
32
Spin Rate
94
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%