Griffin Canning
SPSan Diego Padres · NL · Age 30 · Bats R / Throws R · 59.3 IP · 265 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 388 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
6
+0.6 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (45% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle −3.9°.
W-L
1-8
SV
0
IP
59.3
K
59
BB
32
ERA
6.67
WHIP
1.62
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.94
xwOBA.340
xBA.254
xSLG.422
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA6.67
wOBA.359
BA.281
SLG.443
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+1.7387
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.01971
BA against vs xBA+.02780
SLG against vs xSLG+.02161
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 25.9%(−9.2) | 94.4lg 94.5 | +0.3 | 4637 | 2179 | 15.3"lg 15.4 | 9.3"lg 7.8 |
| Slider | 24.4%(−6.1) | 87.4lg 86.2 | −0.3 | 6781 | 2770 | -3.3"lg 1.5 | 1.4"lg 4.1 |
| Changeup | 22.6%(−0.6) | 90.0lg 86.6 | +0.5 | 8683 | 1500 | 0.8"lg 4.1 | 15.9"lg 14.0 |
| SinkerNEW | 10.8% | 93.6lg 94.0 | — | 4167 | 2104 | 7.7"lg 8.4 | 16.5"lg 15.0 |
| Cutter | 6.6%(+2.9) | 89.8lg 89.5 | +0.2 | 5144 | 2464 | 7.1"lg 7.9 | 0.5"lg 2.4 |
| Curveball | 5.8%(−0.6) | 81.3lg 80.3 | ±0.0 | 5839 | 2520 | -4.4"lg -10.3 | 12.0"lg 8.8 |
| Sweeper | 3.9%(+2.9) | 86.3lg 82.5 | ±0.0 | 9121 | 2830 | —lg 0.9 | —lg 13.7 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle −3.9°
Arm slot
51 pctl · −3.9° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
31
xwOBA Against
31
K%
58
BB%
17
Whiff%
38
FB Velocity
49
Hard-Hit% Against
6
Spin Rate
20
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%