Gordon Graceffo
RPQualifiedSt. Louis Cardinals · NL · Age 26 · Bats R / Throws R · 48.3 IP · 191 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 7 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
48
+5.1 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — slg against vs xslg: .323 actual vs .484 deserved.
Most likely driver: command erosion — losing the zone, not the stuff (35% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle −3.4°.
W-L
6-1
SV
1
IP
48.3
K
26
BB
22
ERA
3.17
WHIP
1.08
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA5.64
xwOBA.360
xBA.264
xSLG.484
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.17
wOBA.271
BA.183
SLG.323
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−2.475
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.0891
BA against vs xBA−.0811
SLG against vs xSLG−.1611
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 40.6%(−2.9) | 95.6lg 94.5 | −0.1 | 6903 | 2056 | 15.3"lg 15.4 | 6.9"lg 7.8 |
| Slider | 28.7%(+2.1) | 89.0lg 86.2 | −0.2 | 8694 | 2380 | 1.7"lg 1.5 | 1.1"lg 4.1 |
| Curveball | 14.4%(−11.4) | 83.2lg 80.3 | −0.2 | 8165 | 2753 | -16.0"lg -10.3 | 2.2"lg 8.8 |
| Changeup | 9.9%(+7.3) | 88.3lg 86.6 | +2.1 | 6902 | 1288 | 3.7"lg 4.1 | 14.1"lg 14.0 |
| Sinker | 6.3%(+4.8) | 95.1lg 94.0 | −0.2 | 6751 | 1996 | 11.9"lg 8.4 | 13.3"lg 15.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle −3.4°
Arm slot
85 pctl · −3.4° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
17
xwOBA Against
17
K%
5
BB%
20
Whiff%
2
FB Velocity
70
Hard-Hit% Against
8
Spin Rate
4
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%