Emerson Hancock
SPQualifiedSeattle Mariners · AL · Age 27 · Bats R / Throws R · 99.3 IP · 390 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 98 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
23
−0.8 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: arm slot dropped — deliberate change or mechanical compensation (37% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle −6.5°.
W-L
6-4
SV
0
IP
99.3
K
94
BB
25
ERA
3.17
WHIP
1.01
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.34
xwOBA.321
xBA.251
xSLG.432
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.17
wOBA.271
BA.209
SLG.345
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−1.1718
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.0506
BA against vs xBA−.0429
SLG against vs xSLG−.0876
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 38.4%(+11.6) | 95.4lg 94.5 | +0.5 | 6574 | 2363 | 9.4"lg 15.4 | 12.0"lg 7.8 |
| Sinker | 23.6%(−14.4) | 94.8lg 94.0 | +0.1 | 6150 | 2356 | 0.3"lg 8.4 | 17.9"lg 15.0 |
| Sweeper | 18.3%(+15.1) | 77.1lg 82.5 | −1.8 | 328 | 2601 | 2.9"lg 0.9 | 16.5"lg 13.7 |
| Cutter | 11.8%(+11.7) | 85.5lg 89.5 | ±0.0 | 650 | 2289 | 3.4"lg 7.9 | 3.9"lg 2.4 |
| Changeup | 5.3%(−15.1) | 87.3lg 86.6 | +0.8 | 5817 | 1512 | -0.7"lg 4.1 | 15.2"lg 14.0 |
| Curveball | 2.6% | 75.7lg 80.3 | — | 1013 | 2558 | —lg -10.3 | —lg 8.8 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle −6.5°
Arm slot
3 pctl · −6.5° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
48
xwOBA Against
48
K%
67
BB%
86
Whiff%
36
FB Velocity
67
Hard-Hit% Against
19
Spin Rate
70
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%