Edward Cabrera
SPQualifiedChicago Cubs · NL · Age 28 · Bats R / Throws R · 72.3 IP · 309 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 58 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
27
+3.8 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — spin rate vs baseline: 2246.0 actual vs 2335.0 deserved.
Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (46% confidence).
W-L
5-4
SV
0
IP
72.3
K
65
BB
29
ERA
5.10
WHIP
1.40
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.87
xwOBA.338
xBA.263
xSLG.437
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA5.10
wOBA.340
BA.262
SLG.447
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+0.2360
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.00252
BA against vs xBA−.00147
SLG against vs xSLG+.01053
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changeup | 30.5%(+4.7) | 92.9lg 86.6 | −1.3 | 9829 | 1741 | 3.7"lg 4.1 | 17.2"lg 14.0 |
| Sinker | 21.4%(+1.0) | 96.4lg 94.0 | −0.5 | 8534 | 2231 | 9.1"lg 8.4 | 16.5"lg 15.0 |
| Curveball | 19.8%(−3.8) | 84.8lg 80.3 | +0.8 | 9035 | 2481 | -7.6"lg -10.3 | 6.5"lg 8.8 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 16.9%(+3.9) | 96.1lg 94.5 | −0.9 | 7561 | 2246 | 13.5"lg 15.4 | 12.0"lg 7.8 |
| Slider | 11.5%(−5.8) | 89.1lg 86.2 | +0.6 | 8789 | 2396 | 4.0"lg 1.5 | 0.1"lg 4.1 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
34 pctl · −2.7° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
32
xwOBA Against
32
K%
37
BB%
53
Whiff%
66
FB Velocity
76
Hard-Hit% Against
26
Spin Rate
34
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%