Dylan Cease
SPQualifiedToronto Blue Jays · AL · Age 30 · Bats R / Throws R · 104.3 IP · 427 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 64 of 614 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
26
−0.6 last 7 days
BUYThe process is ahead of the results — k% vs baseline: 36.9 actual vs 29.8 deserved.
Most likely driver: spin down more than velocity — grip/feel or ball-in-hand change (39% confidence).
W-L
6-4
SV
0
IP
104.3
K
155
BB
45
ERA
2.67
WHIP
1.14
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA2.87
xwOBA.264
xBA.194
xSLG.283
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA2.67
wOBA.254
BA.190
SLG.261
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.2046
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.01037
BA against vs xBA−.00444
SLG against vs xSLG−.02232
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 36.3%(−5.9) | 97.7lg 94.5 | +0.6 | 9298 | 2477 | 18.6"lg 15.4 | 3.4"lg 7.8 |
| Slider | 29.0%(−11.9) | 89.3lg 86.2 | +0.2 | 9038 | 2704 | 3.4"lg 1.5 | 1.3"lg 4.1 |
| Changeup | 11.5%(+10.3) | 83.3lg 86.6 | +5.0 | 1357 | 1776 | 15.6"lg 4.1 | 8.9"lg 14.0 |
| Curveball | 9.5%(+1.2) | 82.6lg 80.3 | +0.3 | 7421 | 2699 | -13.8"lg -10.4 | 2.5"lg 8.8 |
| Sinker | 9.4%(+5.5) | 96.3lg 94.0 | +0.5 | 8369 | 2393 | 13.8"lg 8.4 | 11.4"lg 15.0 |
| Sweeper | 4.3%(+0.8) | 84.1lg 82.5 | −0.2 | 7091 | 2835 | —lg 0.9 | —lg 13.7 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
92 pctl · +1.7° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
91
xwOBA Against
91
K%
99
BB%
24
Whiff%
98
FB Velocity
93
Hard-Hit% Against
84
Spin Rate
90
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%