Daniel Lynch IV

RPQualified

Kansas City Royals · AL · Age 29 · Bats L / Throws L · 41.3 IP · 165 BF

— NeutralHOLDRank 247 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−4.4 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics (35% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +5.4°.

W-L

3-2

41.3

ERA

2.18

WHIP

0.94

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA3.39

xwOBA.286

xBA.227

xSLG.354

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA2.18

wOBA.243

BA.180

SLG.293

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−1.2117

wOBA against vs xwOBA−.0438

BA against vs xBA−.0477

SLG against vs xSLG−.06111

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
Sinker	29.8%(+10.8)	94.4lg 94.0	+0.6	5432	2209	10.2"lg 8.4	16.3"lg 15.0
Slider	24.3%(−4.9)	87.2lg 86.2	+0.4	6473	2322	2.7"lg 1.5	2.8"lg 4.1
Changeup	24.0%(+4.8)	85.9lg 86.6	−0.1	3793	1579	2.9"lg 4.1	14.7"lg 14.0
4-Seam Fastball	15.5%(−7.2)	94.9lg 94.5	+0.8	5623	2323	16.6"lg 15.4	7.9"lg 7.8
Curveball	6.4%(−3.4)	81.5lg 80.3	−1.1	6028	2266	-2.0"lg -10.3	3.3"lg 8.8

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

Arm Angle +5.4°

Arm slot

61 pctl · +5.4° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	16.6	14.8	+1.8	98	96
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2323	2234	+89	97	94
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	7.9	10.2	−2.3	3	94
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	28.9	22.3	+6.6	97	93
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.180	.227	−.047	7	87
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.243	.286	−.043	8	84
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	94.9	94.1	+0.8	90	79
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	20.6	15.6	+5.0	89	78
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.293	.354	−.061	11	77
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	7.3	9.0	−1.7	84	69
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	2.18	3.39	−1.21	17	66
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	6.0	7.8	−1.8	75	50
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	35.9	38.8	−2.9	70	40
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs DET	W 9-3	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 95.1 mph
Jul 17	vs TB	W 4-1	2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 94.6 mph
Jul 14	@ NYM	W 9-1	1.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 94.1 mph
Jul 13	vs CHC	W 5-2	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 94.3 mph
Jul 12	@ TB	L 5-7	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 96.9 mph
Jul 9	@ DET	L 4-10	1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 94.9 mph
Jul 7	vs AZ	L 4-10	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 94.3 mph
Jul 6	vs TB	L 3-7	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 94.6 mph
Jul 5	@ ATL	L 1-7	0.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 94.9 mph
Jul 2	vs WSH	W 3-1	1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 94.9 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

Sinker

29.8%(+10.8)

94.4lg 94.0

+0.6

5432

2209

10.2"lg 8.4

16.3"lg 15.0

Slider

24.3%(−4.9)

87.2lg 86.2

+0.4

6473

2322

2.7"lg 1.5

2.8"lg 4.1

Changeup

24.0%(+4.8)

85.9lg 86.6

−0.1

3793

1579

2.9"lg 4.1

14.7"lg 14.0

4-Seam Fastball

15.5%(−7.2)

94.9lg 94.5

+0.8

5623

2323

16.6"lg 15.4

7.9"lg 7.8

Curveball

6.4%(−3.4)

81.5lg 80.3

−1.1

6028

2266

-2.0"lg -10.3

3.3"lg 8.8

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

16.6

14.8

+1.8

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2323

2234

+89

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

7.9

10.2

−2.3

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

28.9

22.3

+6.6

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.180

.227

−.047

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.243

.286

−.043

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

94.9

94.1

+0.8

K% vs baseline

Contact

20.6

15.6

+5.0

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.293

.354

−.061

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

7.3

9.0

−1.7

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

2.18

3.39

−1.21

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

6.0

7.8

−1.8

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

35.9

38.8

−2.9

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs DET

W 9-3

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 0 BB

Jul 17

vs TB

W 4-1

2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 1 BB

Jul 14

@ NYM

W 9-1

1.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 13

vs CHC

W 5-2

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 12

@ TB

L 5-7

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 9

@ DET

L 4-10

1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 7

vs AZ

L 4-10

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 6

vs TB

L 3-7

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 5

@ ATL

L 1-7

0.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 2

vs WSH

W 3-1

1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB