Cristian Javier
SPHouston Astros · AL · Age 29 · Bats R / Throws R · 16.3 IP · 83 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 295 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
10
−0.5 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (24% confidence).
W-L
0-1
SV
0
IP
16.3
K
14
BB
15
ERA
9.37
WHIP
2.20
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA6.79
xwOBA.389
xBA.272
xSLG.449
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA9.37
wOBA.437
BA.318
SLG.545
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+2.5892
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.04889
BA against vs xBA+.04689
SLG against vs xSLG+.09691
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 52.6%(+12.7) | 93.0lg 94.5 | +0.1 | 2483 | 2185 | 17.1"lg 15.4 | 5.3"lg 7.8 |
| Sweeper | 25.2%(+5.3) | 80.0lg 82.5 | +1.2 | 1741 | 2562 | 1.9"lg 0.9 | 14.5"lg 13.7 |
| Changeup | 14.5%(−4.1) | 85.4lg 86.6 | +1.3 | 2902 | 2364 | 8.3"lg 4.1 | 14.9"lg 14.0 |
| Sinker | 4.0%(−5.6) | 92.7lg 94.0 | +0.1 | 2880 | 2287 | —lg 8.4 | —lg 15.0 |
| Curveball | 3.7%(−8.3) | 76.9lg 80.3 | +0.5 | 1709 | 2984 | —lg -10.3 | —lg 8.8 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
39 pctl · −0.6° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
7
xwOBA Against
7
K%
15
BB%
2
Whiff%
71
FB Velocity
27
Hard-Hit% Against
27
Spin Rate
22
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%