Connor Phillips

RPQualified

Cincinnati Reds · NL · Age 25 · Bats R / Throws R · 27.7 IP · 133 BF

↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 29 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−0.8 last 7 days

SELLThe results are ahead of the process — bb% vs baseline: 21.1 actual vs 12.2 deserved.

Most likely driver: command erosion â€” losing the zone, not the stuff (24% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle −3.0°.

W-L

1-0

27.7

ERA

5.53

WHIP

1.77

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA6.29

xwOBA.377

xBA.240

xSLG.407

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA5.53

wOBA.346

BA.208

SLG.356

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−0.7627

wOBA against vs xwOBA−.03115

BA against vs xBA−.03214

SLG against vs xSLG−.05115

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
4-Seam Fastball	48.9%(−1.0)	98.3lg 94.5	+0.1	9576	2484	16.4"lg 15.4	10.1"lg 7.8
Sweeper	48.2%(+3.1)	86.1lg 82.5	+0.3	9000	2490	2.1"lg 0.9	15.5"lg 13.7
Curveball	2.9%(−2.1)	87.5lg 80.3	+1.1	9858	2239	—lg -10.3	—lg 8.8

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

Arm Angle −3.0°

Arm slot

46 pctl · −3.0° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	21.1	12.2	+8.9	1	99
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	26.8	37.4	−10.6	1	98
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	21.1	32.7	−11.6	2	97
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2484	2552	−68	12	77
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.208	.240	−.032	14	72
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.346	.377	−.031	15	71
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.356	.407	−.051	15	71
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	9.5	7.8	+1.7	25	51
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	5.53	6.29	−0.76	27	46
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	98.3	98.2	+0.1	67	35
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	40.5	38.8	+1.7	36	29
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	16.4	16.4	±0.0	55	10
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	10.1	10.1	±0.0	50	0
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs CWS	L 5-10	1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 98.1 mph
Jul 18	@ MIL	L 5-10	0.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 98.3 mph
Jul 17	vs SF	W 4-3	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 97.4 mph
Jul 15	vs SD	W 9-3	1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 99.5 mph
Jul 13	vs OAK	L 2-3	1.1 IP, 2 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 99.1 mph
Jul 10	vs SF	L 4-8	2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 99.1 mph
Jul 7	@ PIT	W 6-3	1.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 98.9 mph
Jul 6	@ MIN	W 3-2	1.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 98.5 mph
Jul 4	vs SEA	L 4-8	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 97.8 mph
Jul 2	@ ATL	W 8-1	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 98.2 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

4-Seam Fastball

48.9%(−1.0)

98.3lg 94.5

+0.1

9576

2484

16.4"lg 15.4

10.1"lg 7.8

Sweeper

48.2%(+3.1)

86.1lg 82.5

+0.3

9000

2490

2.1"lg 0.9

15.5"lg 13.7

Curveball

2.9%(−2.1)

87.5lg 80.3

+1.1

9858

2239

—lg -10.3

—lg 8.8

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

21.1

12.2

+8.9

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

26.8

37.4

−10.6

K% vs baseline

Contact

21.1

32.7

−11.6

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2484

2552

−68

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.208

.240

−.032

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.346

.377

−.031

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.356

.407

−.051

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

9.5

7.8

+1.7

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

5.53

6.29

−0.76

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

98.3

98.2

+0.1

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

40.5

38.8

+1.7

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

16.4

±0.0

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

10.1

±0.0

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs CWS

L 5-10

1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 18

@ MIL

L 5-10

0.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 17

vs SF

W 4-3

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 15

vs SD

W 9-3

1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Jul 13

vs OAK

L 2-3

1.1 IP, 2 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 10

vs SF

L 4-8

2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Jul 7

@ PIT

W 6-3

1.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 6

@ MIN

W 3-2

1.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 4

vs SEA

L 4-8

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB

Jul 2

@ ATL

W 8-1

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB