Connelly Early
SPQualifiedBoston Red Sox · AL · Age 24 · Bats L / Throws L · 91.7 IP · 390 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 43 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
30
+5.9 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — k% vs baseline: 23.8 actual vs 36.7 deserved.
Most likely driver: command erosion — losing the zone, not the stuff (45% confidence).
W-L
7-5
SV
0
IP
91.7
K
93
BB
34
ERA
3.44
WHIP
1.25
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.34
xwOBA.321
xBA.234
xSLG.408
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.44
wOBA.319
BA.235
SLG.401
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.9024
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.00246
BA against vs xBA+.00150
SLG against vs xSLG−.00741
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 35.1%(+6.0) | 94.0lg 94.5 | ±0.0 | 3867 | 2336 | 16.0"lg 15.4 | 10.5"lg 7.8 |
| Sinker | 19.9%(+6.9) | 92.4lg 94.0 | −0.6 | 2500 | 2167 | 7.8"lg 8.4 | 17.7"lg 15.0 |
| Changeup | 18.3%(−1.2) | 83.7lg 86.6 | −0.3 | 1659 | 1269 | -2.4"lg 4.1 | 10.8"lg 14.0 |
| Curveball | 10.9%(−9.8) | 80.0lg 80.3 | −0.7 | 4288 | 2405 | -9.4"lg -10.3 | 9.8"lg 8.8 |
| Slider | 8.0%(−3.5) | 87.1lg 86.2 | +0.5 | 6271 | 2303 | 6.1"lg 1.5 | 0.3"lg 4.1 |
| Sweeper | 7.9%(+1.7) | 82.5lg 82.5 | −0.4 | 5034 | 2415 | -2.0"lg 0.9 | 13.9"lg 13.7 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
26 pctl · −0.4° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
48
xwOBA Against
48
K%
65
BB%
60
Whiff%
36
FB Velocity
41
Hard-Hit% Against
33
Spin Rate
63
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%