Colin Rea
SPQualifiedChicago Cubs · NL · Age 36 · Bats R / Throws R · 100.7 IP · 441 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 30 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
35
−3.6 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — barrel% against vs league: 10.0 actual vs 7.8 deserved.
No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.
W-L
7-6
SV
1
IP
100.7
K
76
BB
37
ERA
4.74
WHIP
1.42
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA5.46
xwOBA.355
xBA.274
xSLG.470
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.74
wOBA.342
BA.270
SLG.435
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.7228
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.01333
BA against vs xBA−.00443
SLG against vs xSLG−.03522
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 42.6%(+1.1) | 93.7lg 94.5 | −0.2 | 3426 | 2178 | 13.4"lg 15.4 | 8.5"lg 7.8 |
| Changeup | 18.0%(+5.9) | 87.7lg 86.6 | +0.3 | 6317 | 1403 | -1.6"lg 4.1 | 12.0"lg 14.0 |
| Slider | 11.1%(+1.1) | 86.1lg 86.2 | +0.9 | 4335 | 2130 | -0.5"lg 1.5 | 3.5"lg 4.1 |
| Sweeper | 9.3%(±0.0) | 83.0lg 82.5 | +0.2 | 5776 | 2430 | 2.3"lg 0.9 | 15.5"lg 13.7 |
| Sinker | 8.5%(−2.1) | 92.4lg 94.0 | −0.6 | 2500 | 2121 | 9.1"lg 8.4 | 13.6"lg 15.0 |
| Cutter | 5.4%(−1.9) | 87.0lg 89.5 | −1.2 | 1462 | 2184 | 6.2"lg 7.9 | 4.4"lg 2.4 |
| Curveball | 5.0%(−4.2) | 79.8lg 80.3 | −0.5 | 4051 | 2196 | —lg -10.3 | —lg 8.8 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
24 pctl · −0.9° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
19
xwOBA Against
19
K%
16
BB%
64
Whiff%
15
FB Velocity
37
Hard-Hit% Against
37
Spin Rate
20
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%