Clay Holmes
SPNew York Mets · NL · Age 33 · Bats R / Throws R · 52.7 IP · 215 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 542 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
2
+1.9 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.Mechanical flag: arm angle −3.0°.
W-L
4-4
SV
0
IP
52.7
K
45
BB
18
ERA
2.39
WHIP
1.10
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA3.91
xwOBA.306
xBA.251
xSLG.366
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA2.39
wOBA.258
BA.206
SLG.294
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−1.5211
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.0487
BA against vs xBA−.0458
SLG against vs xSLG−.0729
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 50.5%(+9.7) | 93.7lg 94.0 | ±0.0 | 4357 | 2132 | 2.4"lg 8.4 | 16.3"lg 15.0 |
| Sweeper | 19.0%(±0.0) | 82.0lg 82.5 | +0.1 | 4155 | 2878 | -4.1"lg 0.9 | 17.1"lg 13.7 |
| Changeup | 14.6%(−1.1) | 88.8lg 86.6 | +0.7 | 7537 | 809 | -1.8"lg 4.1 | 8.8"lg 14.0 |
| CurveballNEW | 8.8% | 81.6lg 80.3 | — | 6187 | 2956 | -14.7"lg -10.3 | 10.3"lg 8.8 |
| Cutter | 7.0%(−1.4) | 88.7lg 89.5 | −1.1 | 3953 | 2579 | 2.9"lg 7.9 | 1.7"lg 2.4 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle −3.0°
Arm slot
58 pctl · −3.0° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
62
xwOBA Against
62
K%
36
BB%
64
Whiff%
24
FB Velocity
54
Hard-Hit% Against
18
Spin Rate
54
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%