Chris Murphy
RPQualifiedChicago White Sox · AL · Age 28 · Bats L / Throws L · 23.0 IP · 102 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 176 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
16
+10.6 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: arm slot dropped — deliberate change or mechanical compensation (21% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle −3.2°.
W-L
3-0
SV
1
IP
23.0
K
22
BB
12
ERA
4.30
WHIP
1.43
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA3.86
xwOBA.304
xBA.225
xSLG.343
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.30
wOBA.320
BA.241
SLG.368
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+0.4467
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.01669
BA against vs xBA+.01669
SLG against vs xSLG+.02564
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 32.4%(+0.9) | 96.3lg 94.5 | +2.0 | 7872 | 2407 | 16.1"lg 15.4 | 7.8"lg 7.8 |
| Slider | 30.2%(+10.2) | 89.2lg 86.2 | +1.6 | 8907 | 2311 | 5.2"lg 1.5 | 3.8"lg 4.1 |
| Curveball | 21.7%(−9.4) | 77.8lg 80.3 | +1.0 | 2310 | 2569 | -12.1"lg -10.3 | 15.2"lg 8.8 |
| Sweeper | 6.3%(±0.0) | 80.3lg 82.5 | +1.4 | 2121 | 2407 | 3.6"lg 0.9 | 17.2"lg 13.7 |
| Sinker | 4.3%(−0.6) | 93.7lg 94.0 | +1.4 | 4357 | 2293 | —lg 8.4 | —lg 15.0 |
| Changeup | 4.3%(−0.8) | 85.8lg 86.6 | +2.0 | 3646 | 1738 | —lg 4.1 | —lg 14.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle −3.2°
Arm slot
50 pctl · −3.2° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
64
xwOBA Against
64
K%
40
BB%
19
Whiff%
90
FB Velocity
79
Hard-Hit% Against
76
Spin Rate
79
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%