Carmen Mlodzinski
RPQualifiedPittsburgh Pirates · NL · Age 27 · Bats R / Throws R · 83.7 IP · 359 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 10 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
46
−4.9 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — era vs xera: 3.1 actual vs 4.9 deserved.
Most likely driver: fastball velocity loss (fatigue, mechanics, or health) (45% confidence).
W-L
6-3
SV
2
IP
83.7
K
66
BB
28
ERA
3.12
WHIP
1.34
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.87
xwOBA.338
xBA.282
xSLG.427
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.12
wOBA.306
BA.258
SLG.371
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−1.759
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.03214
BA against vs xBA−.02420
SLG against vs xSLG−.05613
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 28.2%(−8.0) | 95.0lg 94.5 | −1.1 | 5796 | 2091 | 12.1"lg 15.4 | 10.0"lg 7.8 |
| Splitter | 26.0%(+10.8) | 85.6lg 86.7 | −2.0 | 4128 | 1677 | -0.7"lg 3.1 | 9.1"lg 11.1 |
| Sinker | 16.9%(+1.8) | 94.4lg 94.0 | −1.5 | 5432 | 2020 | 6.5"lg 8.4 | 16.9"lg 15.0 |
| Curveball | 12.0%(+3.1) | 83.9lg 80.3 | −0.9 | 8481 | 2579 | -9.0"lg -10.3 | 7.2"lg 8.8 |
| Sweeper | 10.5%(±0.0) | 83.5lg 82.5 | −0.5 | 6431 | 2547 | -2.5"lg 0.9 | 12.1"lg 13.7 |
| Slider | 4.9%(−9.2) | 90.6lg 86.2 | +1.9 | 9715 | 2357 | —lg 1.5 | —lg 4.1 |
| Cutter | 1.5%(+1.4) | 92.3lg 89.5 | −1.0 | 8827 | 2403 | —lg 7.9 | —lg 2.4 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
31 pctl · +2.0° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
32
xwOBA Against
32
K%
23
BB%
70
Whiff%
18
FB Velocity
60
Hard-Hit% Against
10
Spin Rate
7
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%