Cade Povich

Baltimore Orioles · AL · Age 26 · Bats L / Throws L · 19.3 IP · 82 BF

— NeutralHOLDRank 548 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

+1.8 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: arm slot raised — pitch-design change or new mechanics (24% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +6.6°.

W-L

1-1

19.3

ERA

5.12

WHIP

1.34

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA5.35

xwOBA.352

xBA.271

xSLG.465

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA5.12

wOBA.349

BA.257

SLG.473

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−0.2345

wOBA against vs xwOBA−.00346

BA against vs xBA−.01430

SLG against vs xSLG+.00851

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
4-Seam Fastball	43.1%(+5.9)	91.9lg 94.5	−0.3	1194	2470	19.5"lg 15.4	7.2"lg 7.8
Curveball	22.7%(+0.9)	76.1lg 80.3	−2.8	1171	2472	-16.3"lg -10.3	8.7"lg 8.8
Slider	16.4%(+14.7)	86.5lg 86.2	+2.6	5083	2493	7.7"lg 1.5	5.1"lg 4.1
Sinker	9.2%(−3.1)	91.4lg 94.0	−0.5	1424	2271	15.1"lg 8.4	14.9"lg 15.0
Changeup	8.6%(−6.4)	84.8lg 86.6	+1.2	2439	1339	5.7"lg 4.1	14.5"lg 14.0

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

Arm Angle +6.6°

Arm slot

84 pctl · +6.6° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	19.5	17.4	+2.1	99	98
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2470	2356	+114	99	97
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	7.2	10.5	−3.3	2	96
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	14.6	24.2	−9.6	3	93
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	45.2	38.8	+6.4	13	74
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	26.1	24.2	+1.9	80	60
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	9.7	7.8	+1.9	21	58
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	8.5	8.8	−0.3	71	43
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.257	.271	−.014	30	40
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	91.9	92.2	−0.3	32	37
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	5.12	5.35	−0.23	45	11
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.349	.352	−.003	46	9
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.473	.465	+.008	51	1
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	@ SD	L 0-7	7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 91.9 mph
Jul 16	vs MIN	W 8-2	5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 91.1 mph
Jul 11	@ BOS	W 3-1	5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 92.2 mph
Jul 6	@ NYY	W 3-2	6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 91.4 mph
Jun 30	vs CLE	W 4-3	4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 91.9 mph
Jun 25	vs PHI	L 3-7	4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 91.8 mph
Jun 19	vs PHI	W 4-2	6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 91.9 mph
Jun 14	@ ATL	L 0-10	4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 91.5 mph
Jun 8	vs LAA	W 7-3	6.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 92.5 mph
Jun 4	@ SEA	W 5-3	6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 91.3 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

4-Seam Fastball

43.1%(+5.9)

91.9lg 94.5

−0.3

1194

2470

19.5"lg 15.4

7.2"lg 7.8

Curveball

22.7%(+0.9)

76.1lg 80.3

−2.8

1171

2472

-16.3"lg -10.3

8.7"lg 8.8

Slider

16.4%(+14.7)

86.5lg 86.2

+2.6

5083

2493

7.7"lg 1.5

5.1"lg 4.1

Sinker

9.2%(−3.1)

91.4lg 94.0

−0.5

1424

2271

15.1"lg 8.4

14.9"lg 15.0

Changeup

8.6%(−6.4)

84.8lg 86.6

+1.2

2439

1339

5.7"lg 4.1

14.5"lg 14.0

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

19.5

17.4

+2.1

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2470

2356

+114

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

7.2

10.5

−3.3

K% vs baseline

Contact

14.6

24.2

−9.6

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

45.2

38.8

+6.4

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

26.1

24.2

+1.9

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

9.7

7.8

+1.9

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

8.5

8.8

−0.3

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.257

.271

−.014

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

91.9

92.2

−0.3

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

5.12

5.35

−0.23

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.349

.352

−.003

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.473

.465

+.008

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

@ SD

L 0-7

7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB

Jul 16

vs MIN

W 8-2

5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K, 3 BB

Jul 11

@ BOS

W 3-1

5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 3 BB

Jul 6

@ NYY

W 3-2

6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 3 BB

Jun 30

vs CLE

W 4-3

4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 2 BB

Jun 25

vs PHI

L 3-7

4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jun 19

vs PHI

W 4-2

6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 2 BB

Jun 14

@ ATL

L 0-10

4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB

Jun 8

vs LAA

W 7-3

6.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 2 BB

Jun 4

@ SEA

W 5-3

6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K, 2 BB