Cade Gibson
RPQualifiedMiami Marlins · NL · Age 28 · Bats L / Throws L · 25.7 IP · 115 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 111 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
21
+7.6 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (32% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle −3.7°.
W-L
2-0
SV
0
IP
25.7
K
24
BB
10
ERA
4.91
WHIP
1.36
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA3.59
xwOBA.294
xBA.243
xSLG.314
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.91
wOBA.314
BA.260
SLG.354
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+1.3284
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.02073
BA against vs xBA+.01771
SLG against vs xSLG+.04073
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweeper | 27.8%(+13.6) | 80.4lg 82.5 | +0.8 | 2207 | 3179 | -0.1"lg 0.9 | 21.5"lg 13.7 |
| Sinker | 22.9%(−0.8) | 92.3lg 94.0 | +0.7 | 2384 | 2329 | 6.6"lg 8.4 | 14.6"lg 15.0 |
| Curveball | 22.7%(−5.8) | 79.3lg 80.3 | +0.5 | 3623 | 3104 | -15.5"lg -10.3 | 14.6"lg 8.8 |
| Slider | 17.0%(+7.4) | 87.1lg 86.2 | +1.7 | 6271 | 2847 | 5.1"lg 1.5 | 3.1"lg 4.1 |
| Changeup | 6.6%(−7.9) | 86.8lg 86.6 | +1.9 | 5049 | 1809 | 1.8"lg 4.1 | 12.0"lg 14.0 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 3.0%(−6.5) | 92.3lg 94.5 | +0.4 | 1678 | 2338 | —lg 15.4 | —lg 7.8 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle −3.7°
Arm slot
29 pctl · −3.7° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
71
xwOBA Against
71
K%
36
BB%
60
Whiff%
19
FB Velocity
20
Hard-Hit% Against
73
Spin Rate
64
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%