Cade Cavalli
SPQualifiedWashington Nationals · NL · Age 27 · Bats R / Throws R · 104.7 IP · 454 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 514 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
3
−0.6 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: arm slot dropped — deliberate change or mechanical compensation (50% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle −7.7°.
W-L
6-4
SV
0
IP
104.7
K
119
BB
32
ERA
3.78
WHIP
1.31
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.14
xwOBA.314
xBA.250
xSLG.380
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.78
wOBA.310
BA.259
SLG.363
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.3640
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.00444
BA against vs xBA+.00963
SLG against vs xSLG−.01735
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 35.0%(+5.6) | 96.7lg 94.5 | −0.5 | 8279 | 2297 | 14.8"lg 15.4 | 5.9"lg 7.8 |
| Curveball | 27.0%(−3.5) | 85.5lg 80.3 | −0.6 | 9446 | 2225 | -10.9"lg -10.3 | 8.1"lg 8.8 |
| Sinker | 15.5%(−3.0) | 96.1lg 94.0 | −0.8 | 8101 | 2148 | 7.9"lg 8.4 | 14.8"lg 15.0 |
| SweeperNEW | 11.7% | 85.7lg 82.5 | — | 8724 | 2260 | -7.8"lg 0.9 | 14.7"lg 13.7 |
| Changeup | 7.8%(−5.8) | 88.8lg 86.6 | −1.0 | 7537 | 1929 | 4.5"lg 4.1 | 17.5"lg 14.0 |
| Cutter | 3.0%(−5.0) | 93.0lg 89.5 | −0.6 | 9314 | 2272 | —lg 7.9 | —lg 2.4 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle −7.7°
Arm slot
43 pctl · −7.7° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
55
xwOBA Against
55
K%
78
BB%
80
Whiff%
44
FB Velocity
83
Hard-Hit% Against
35
Spin Rate
51
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%