Bubba Chandler
SPQualifiedPittsburgh Pirates · NL · Age 23 · Bats S / Throws R · 94.3 IP · 421 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 33 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
34
−3.9 last 7 days
SELLThe results are ahead of the process — bb% vs baseline: 13.1 actual vs 3.2 deserved.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (37% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +3.8°.
W-L
3-8
SV
0
IP
94.3
K
85
BB
55
ERA
4.77
WHIP
1.45
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.14
xwOBA.314
xBA.225
xSLG.367
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.77
wOBA.320
BA.230
SLG.375
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+0.6371
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.00658
BA against vs xBA+.00557
SLG against vs xSLG+.00851
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 47.9%(−6.0) | 98.5lg 94.5 | −0.4 | 9628 | 2408 | 17.9"lg 15.4 | 7.6"lg 7.8 |
| Slider | 18.7%(+1.3) | 90.2lg 86.2 | +1.2 | 9549 | 2425 | 2.8"lg 1.5 | 2.0"lg 4.1 |
| Changeup | 16.9%(−5.7) | 91.8lg 86.6 | +0.1 | 9598 | 2057 | 7.1"lg 4.1 | 16.9"lg 14.0 |
| SinkerNEW | 7.0% | 98.0lg 94.0 | — | 9557 | 2307 | 12.6"lg 8.4 | 13.9"lg 15.0 |
| SweeperNEW | 6.2% | 87.6lg 82.5 | — | 9707 | 2505 | 1.1"lg 0.9 | 8.8"lg 13.7 |
| Curveball | 3.4%(−2.7) | 85.5lg 80.3 | +0.1 | 9446 | 2452 | —lg -10.3 | —lg 8.8 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle +3.8°
Arm slot
78 pctl · +3.8° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
55
xwOBA Against
55
K%
31
BB%
13
Whiff%
30
FB Velocity
96
Hard-Hit% Against
61
Spin Rate
79
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%