Bryce Miller
SPQualifiedSeattle Mariners · AL · Age 27 · Bats R / Throws R · 63.3 IP · 241 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 12 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
45
+5.8 last 7 days
BUYThe process is ahead of the results — k% vs baseline: 29.5 actual vs 18.9 deserved.
No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.
W-L
4-4
SV
0
IP
63.3
K
71
BB
10
ERA
2.27
WHIP
0.88
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA2.49
xwOBA.246
xBA.199
xSLG.331
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA2.27
wOBA.256
BA.201
SLG.354
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.2245
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.01064
BA against vs xBA+.00253
SLG against vs xSLG+.02362
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 44.0%(+2.6) | 96.2lg 94.5 | +1.4 | 7725 | 2530 | 18.9"lg 15.4 | 5.0"lg 7.8 |
| Splitter | 24.0%(+5.3) | 85.0lg 86.7 | +1.1 | 3303 | 1144 | 4.5"lg 3.1 | 10.4"lg 11.1 |
| Slider | 11.6%(+3.9) | 87.7lg 86.2 | +2.0 | 7185 | 2462 | 2.2"lg 1.5 | 4.2"lg 4.1 |
| Sweeper | 6.4%(+2.1) | 83.9lg 82.5 | +1.0 | 6828 | 2405 | -6.5"lg 0.9 | 15.4"lg 13.7 |
| Cutter | 4.9%(+4.2) | 90.8lg 89.5 | +1.0 | 7004 | 2597 | —lg 7.9 | —lg 2.4 |
| Curveball | 4.6%(−6.2) | 83.0lg 80.3 | −0.4 | 7991 | 2340 | —lg -10.3 | —lg 8.8 |
| Sinker | 4.5%(−12.0) | 95.5lg 94.0 | +1.0 | 7384 | 2437 | —lg 8.4 | —lg 15.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
78 pctl · +1.7° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
96
xwOBA Against
96
K%
92
BB%
98
Whiff%
81
FB Velocity
78
Hard-Hit% Against
94
Spin Rate
94
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%