Bryce Elder
SPQualifiedAtlanta Braves · NL · Age 27 · Bats R / Throws R · 108.7 IP · 457 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 402 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
6
−2.1 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.Mechanical flag: arm angle −3.2°.
W-L
6-6
SV
0
IP
108.7
K
90
BB
33
ERA
4.06
WHIP
1.23
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA3.86
xwOBA.304
xBA.246
xSLG.391
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.06
wOBA.308
BA.243
SLG.404
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+0.2059
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.00454
BA against vs xBA−.00344
SLG against vs xSLG+.01355
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 26.7%(−15.4) | 91.2lg 94.0 | −0.3 | 1150 | 2084 | 8.1"lg 8.4 | 13.6"lg 15.0 |
| Slider | 26.6%(−8.5) | 83.2lg 86.2 | −1.1 | 1283 | 2451 | -3.3"lg 1.5 | 3.3"lg 4.1 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 23.1%(+10.8) | 92.6lg 94.5 | −0.2 | 2050 | 2225 | 15.4"lg 15.4 | 4.3"lg 7.8 |
| CutterNEW | 14.9% | 88.6lg 89.5 | — | 3773 | 2203 | 10.5"lg 7.9 | 1.7"lg 2.4 |
| Changeup | 8.8%(−1.7) | 85.6lg 86.6 | −1.0 | 3293 | 1315 | 4.2"lg 4.1 | 11.6"lg 14.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle −3.2°
Arm slot
84 pctl · −3.2° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
64
xwOBA Against
64
K%
30
BB%
77
Whiff%
26
FB Velocity
23
Hard-Hit% Against
39
Spin Rate
29
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%