Brock Burke
RPQualifiedCincinnati Reds · NL · Age 29 · Bats L / Throws L · 46.7 IP · 200 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 215 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
14
−7.7 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: command erosion — losing the zone, not the stuff (29% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +3.0°.
W-L
3-4
SV
1
IP
46.7
K
40
BB
27
ERA
2.89
WHIP
1.35
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.52
xwOBA.327
xBA.241
xSLG.394
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA2.89
wOBA.302
BA.213
SLG.361
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−1.6310
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.02519
BA against vs xBA−.02817
SLG against vs xSLG−.03323
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 40.2%(−2.2) | 96.2lg 94.5 | +0.1 | 7725 | 2330 | 15.5"lg 15.4 | 8.9"lg 7.8 |
| Slider | 30.8%(+3.2) | 86.3lg 86.2 | −1.6 | 4786 | 2261 | 4.4"lg 1.5 | 0.4"lg 4.1 |
| Changeup | 16.6%(−5.4) | 87.6lg 86.6 | −1.2 | 6171 | 2109 | 7.5"lg 4.1 | 15.3"lg 14.0 |
| Sinker | 12.4%(+4.4) | 93.5lg 94.0 | ±0.0 | 3977 | 2175 | 11.8"lg 8.4 | 14.4"lg 15.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle +3.0°
Arm slot
73 pctl · +3.0° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
42
xwOBA Against
42
K%
31
BB%
10
Whiff%
78
FB Velocity
78
Hard-Hit% Against
88
Spin Rate
61
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%