Brayan Bello
SPQualifiedBoston Red Sox · AL · Age 27 · Bats R / Throws R · 65.3 IP · 296 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 151 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
18
+1.3 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: fastball shape degraded — flatter, more hittable (31% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +7.1°.
W-L
2-6
SV
0
IP
65.3
K
49
BB
24
ERA
6.06
WHIP
1.59
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA6.13
xwOBA.373
xBA.303
xSLG.509
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA6.06
wOBA.361
BA.301
SLG.477
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.0751
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.01234
BA against vs xBA−.00245
SLG against vs xSLG−.03224
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 41.7%(+6.3) | 94.9lg 94.0 | −0.4 | 6329 | 2014 | 6.1"lg 8.4 | 16.4"lg 15.0 |
| Changeup | 18.1%(+3.1) | 88.6lg 86.6 | −0.1 | 7207 | 1747 | 5.5"lg 4.1 | 16.3"lg 14.0 |
| Cutter | 15.4%(−0.6) | 87.2lg 89.5 | −1.0 | 1841 | 2333 | 2.5"lg 7.9 | 0.1"lg 2.4 |
| Sweeper | 13.0%(−5.8) | 85.7lg 82.5 | ±0.0 | 8724 | 2325 | -3.8"lg 0.9 | 7.7"lg 13.7 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 6.1%(−8.7) | 94.7lg 94.5 | −0.4 | 5372 | 2026 | 11.2"lg 15.4 | 6.7"lg 7.8 |
| CurveballNEW | 5.8% | 83.4lg 80.3 | — | 8291 | 2439 | -8.3"lg -10.3 | 1.8"lg 8.8 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle +7.1°
Arm slot
56 pctl · +7.1° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
12
xwOBA Against
12
K%
14
BB%
67
Whiff%
42
FB Velocity
56
Hard-Hit% Against
17
Spin Rate
3
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%