Braxton Ashcraft
SPQualifiedPittsburgh Pirates · NL · Age 26 · Bats L / Throws R · 116.3 IP · 481 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 56 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
27
−6.4 last 7 days
BUYThe process is ahead of the results — horizontal break vs baseline: 9.4 actual vs 7.3 deserved.
Most likely driver: arm slot dropped — deliberate change or mechanical compensation (48% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle −3.1°.
W-L
9-4
SV
0
IP
116.3
K
130
BB
28
ERA
3.95
WHIP
1.17
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA3.54
xwOBA.292
xBA.234
xSLG.373
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.95
wOBA.304
BA.245
SLG.402
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+0.4166
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.01266
BA against vs xBA+.01164
SLG against vs xSLG+.02968
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 31.9%(+2.2) | 97.2lg 94.5 | +0.2 | 8919 | 2350 | 15.4"lg 15.4 | 9.4"lg 7.8 |
| Curveball | 26.1%(+5.0) | 85.0lg 80.3 | +0.7 | 9098 | 2730 | -10.3"lg -10.3 | 6.6"lg 8.8 |
| Slider | 22.8%(−8.4) | 91.8lg 86.2 | −0.2 | 9941 | 2582 | 4.6"lg 1.5 | 1.0"lg 4.1 |
| Sinker | 13.9%(−0.9) | 96.9lg 94.0 | +0.3 | 9008 | 2321 | 7.1"lg 8.4 | 16.1"lg 15.0 |
| SplitterNEW | 5.3% | 91.8lg 86.7 | — | 9495 | 1899 | 5.9"lg 3.1 | 14.7"lg 11.1 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle −3.1°
Arm slot
49 pctl · −3.1° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
73
xwOBA Against
73
K%
82
BB%
91
Whiff%
68
FB Velocity
89
Hard-Hit% Against
27
Spin Rate
67
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%