Ben Brown

RPQualified

Chicago Cubs · NL · Age 26 · Bats R / Throws R · 68.0 IP · 265 BF

↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 89 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−7.6 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

Most likely driver: arm slot dropped — deliberate change or mechanical compensation (45% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle −4.1°.

W-L

4-2

68.0

ERA

1.85

WHIP

0.94

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA3.22

xwOBA.279

xBA.223

xSLG.335

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA1.85

wOBA.228

BA.186

SLG.248

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA−1.3714

wOBA against vs xwOBA−.0516

BA against vs xBA−.03712

SLG against vs xSLG−.0876

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
4-Seam Fastball	37.0%(−18.6)	96.3lg 94.5	+0.5	7872	2208	16.0"lg 15.4	8.4"lg 7.8
Curveball	36.5%(−3.4)	86.8lg 80.3	−0.4	9763	2307	-3.2"lg -10.3	2.9"lg 8.8
SinkerNEW	20.6%	96.4lg 94.0	—	8534	2149	12.6"lg 8.4	14.8"lg 15.0
Changeup	6.0%(+1.5)	90.1lg 86.6	−0.4	8793	1290	4.4"lg 4.1	10.1"lg 14.0

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

Arm Angle −4.1°

Arm slot

59 pctl · −4.1° vs prior

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.228	.279	−.051	6	89
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.248	.335	−.087	6	87
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.186	.223	−.037	12	76
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	1.85	3.22	−1.37	14	73
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	8.4	7.4	+1.0	86	72
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	16.0	17.0	−1.0	15	70
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	96.3	95.8	+0.5	83	66
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	43.0	38.8	+4.2	23	54
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	24.5	25.6	−1.1	35	29
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	27.3	28.3	−1.0	36	28
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	7.2	6.8	+0.4	37	26
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	7.3	7.8	−0.5	57	13
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2208	2212	−4	44	11
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	@ TEX	L 4-8	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 96.0 mph
Jul 18	vs LAD	L 4-6	2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 96.0 mph
Jul 17	vs MIA	L 2-9	1.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 96.2 mph
Jul 14	@ STL	L 3-7	1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 96.9 mph
Jul 11	@ NYM	L 0-6	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 95.7 mph
Jul 8	vs AZ	L 3-6	1.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 96.2 mph
Jul 7	vs CIN	L 1-9	2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 96.6 mph
Jul 5	@ PHI	L 3-7	1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 96.7 mph
Jul 4	vs HOU	L 5-8	2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 96.0 mph
Jul 1	@ CIN	W 8-3	0.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB	Avg FB 96.9 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

4-Seam Fastball

37.0%(−18.6)

96.3lg 94.5

+0.5

7872

2208

16.0"lg 15.4

8.4"lg 7.8

Curveball

36.5%(−3.4)

86.8lg 80.3

−0.4

9763

2307

-3.2"lg -10.3

2.9"lg 8.8

SinkerNEW

20.6%

96.4lg 94.0

—

8534

2149

12.6"lg 8.4

14.8"lg 15.0

Changeup

6.0%(+1.5)

90.1lg 86.6

−0.4

8793

1290

4.4"lg 4.1

10.1"lg 14.0

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.228

.279

−.051

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.248

.335

−.087

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.186

.223

−.037

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

1.85

3.22

−1.37

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

8.4

7.4

+1.0

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

16.0

17.0

−1.0

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

96.3

95.8

+0.5

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

43.0

38.8

+4.2

K% vs baseline

Contact

24.5

25.6

−1.1

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

27.3

28.3

−1.0

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

7.2

6.8

+0.4

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

7.3

7.8

−0.5

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2208

2212

−4

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

@ TEX

L 4-8

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Jul 18

vs LAD

L 4-6

2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 17

vs MIA

L 2-9

1.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K, 1 BB

Jul 14

@ STL

L 3-7

1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 11

@ NYM

L 0-6

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB

Jul 8

vs AZ

L 3-6

1.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 7

vs CIN

L 1-9

2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K, 1 BB

Jul 5

@ PHI

L 3-7

1.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Jul 4

vs HOU

L 5-8

2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Jul 1

@ CIN

W 8-3

0.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB