Bailey Falter
RPKansas City Royals · AL · Age 29 · Bats R / Throws L · 9.7 IP · 57 BF
— NeutralHOLDRank 288 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
10
−9.0 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (18% confidence).
W-L
0-2
SV
0
IP
9.7
K
6
BB
6
ERA
13.97
WHIP
3.10
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA7.98
xwOBA.415
xBA.355
xSLG.537
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA13.97
wOBA.548
BA.471
SLG.765
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+5.9999
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.13399
BA against vs xBA+.11699
SLG against vs xSLG+.22898
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 55.6%(+4.7) | 92.2lg 94.5 | +0.1 | 1540 | 2132 | —lg 15.4 | —lg 7.8 |
| Slider | 22.8%(+4.7) | 83.3lg 86.2 | −1.8 | 1401 | 2128 | —lg 1.5 | —lg 4.1 |
| Splitter | 10.0%(+2.3) | 85.4lg 86.7 | +0.1 | 3716 | 1092 | —lg 3.1 | —lg 11.1 |
| Curveball | 9.4%(−3.2) | 77.3lg 80.3 | −0.5 | 1994 | 1887 | —lg -10.3 | —lg 8.8 |
| Sinker | 2.2%(−7.6) | 91.6lg 94.0 | −0.6 | 1635 | 2120 | —lg 8.4 | —lg 15.0 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
No movement data for this arsenal (below the pitch-count minimum).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
2
xwOBA Against
2
K%
50
BB%
45
Whiff%
51
FB Velocity
18
Hard-Hit% Against
16
Spin Rate
11
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%