Austin Warren
RPQualifiedNew York Mets · NL · Age 30 · Bats R / Throws R · 35.0 IP · 157 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 132 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
19
−5.4 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.
W-L
1-3
SV
0
IP
35.0
K
37
BB
18
ERA
4.63
WHIP
1.49
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA5.28
xwOBA.350
xBA.261
xSLG.435
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA4.63
wOBA.349
BA.252
SLG.444
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.6530
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.00147
BA against vs xBA−.00937
SLG against vs xSLG+.00952
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweeper | 47.7%(+18.9) | 85.0lg 82.5 | +1.0 | 8190 | 2763 | -1.6"lg 0.9 | 15.5"lg 13.7 |
| Sinker | 25.0%(−10.6) | 94.1lg 94.0 | +0.1 | 5000 | 2275 | 6.0"lg 8.4 | 18.1"lg 15.0 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 15.5%(+1.8) | 93.9lg 94.5 | ±0.0 | 3659 | 2393 | 14.9"lg 15.4 | 11.5"lg 7.8 |
| Curveball | 9.5%(+8.8) | 84.2lg 80.3 | +1.0 | 8750 | 2756 | -7.2"lg -10.3 | 9.1"lg 8.8 |
| Cutter | 1.4%(−15.7) | 88.3lg 89.5 | −0.1 | 3231 | 2523 | —lg 7.9 | —lg 2.4 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
no prior-season baseline
17 pctl ·
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
24
xwOBA Against
24
K%
65
BB%
20
Whiff%
64
FB Velocity
39
Hard-Hit% Against
27
Spin Rate
76
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%