Andrew Painter

SPQualified

Philadelphia Phillies · NL · Age 23 · Bats R / Throws R · 65.0 IP · 299 BF

↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 95 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score

Opportunity Score

−1.3 last 7 days

HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.

No diagnostic pattern fires — the profile is stable year over year.

W-L

1-8

65.0

ERA

7.06

WHIP

1.66

Edge breakdown

Expected

What the batted-ball quality deserves

xERA5.21

xwOBA.348

xBA.272

xSLG.464

xBABIP.281

Actual

What the scoreboard says

ERA7.06

wOBA.388

BA.316

SLG.526

BABIP.281

Difference

Actual − expected · percentile of the gap

ERA vs xERA+1.8589

wOBA against vs xwOBA+.04086

BA against vs xBA+.04488

SLG against vs xSLG+.06282

BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050

Arsenal & pitch shapes

2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective

Pitch	Usage	Velo	vs 2025	Velo pctl	Spin	IVB	HB
4-Seam FastballNEW	33.1%	96.5lg 94.5	—	8071	2257	16.3"lg 15.4	2.6"lg 7.8
SliderNEW	21.4%	88.1lg 86.2	—	7743	2546	4.5"lg 1.5	6.3"lg 4.1
SplitterNEW	14.4%	87.4lg 86.7	—	5872	1593	8.1"lg 3.1	9.8"lg 11.1
SweeperNEW	11.4%	83.0lg 82.5	—	5776	2606	2.2"lg 0.9	15.7"lg 13.7
SinkerNEW	10.8%	95.2lg 94.0	—	7004	2137	14.2"lg 8.4	11.8"lg 15.0
CurveballNEW	8.9%	81.1lg 80.3	—	5712	2639	-7.5"lg -10.3	8.0"lg 8.8

IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.

Mechanics Watch

2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average

No mechanical changes detected

Arm slot

no prior-season baseline

80 pctl ·

What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).

Metric	Family	Actual	Expected	Diff	Percentile	Edge
xERA ERA vs xERA	Expected vs Actual	7.06	5.21	+1.85	89	78
xBA BA against vs xBA	Expected vs Actual	.316	.272	+.044	88	76
xwOBA wOBA against vs xwOBA	Expected vs Actual	.388	.348	+.040	86	72
xSLG SLG against vs xSLG	Expected vs Actual	.526	.464	+.062	82	64
Barrel% Barrel% against vs league	Quality of Contact	9.6	7.8	+1.8	23	55
Hard-Hit% Hard-Hit% against vs league	Quality of Contact	35.2	38.8	−3.6	74	47
Spin Rate Spin rate vs baseline	Spin	2257	2257	±0	58	16
BB% BB% vs baseline	Discipline	8.0	8.0	±0.0	55	11
Whiff% Whiff% vs baseline	Contact	22.3	22.3	±0.0	55	10
IVB Induced vertical break vs baseline	Movement	16.3	16.3	±0.0	55	10
K% K% vs baseline	Contact	17.7	17.7	±0.0	54	8
FB Velo Fastball velo vs baseline	Velocity	96.5	96.5	±0.0	53	6
Horiz. Break Horizontal break vs baseline	Movement	2.6	2.6	±0.0	50	0
xBABIP BABIP against vs xBABIP	Expected vs Actual	.281	.281	+.000	50	0

Recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Line	Statcast
Jul 20	vs PIT	W 4-3	4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 96.1 mph
Jul 14	vs CLE	L 4-9	4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 96.2 mph
Jul 10	@ SF	W 4-0	4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 95.6 mph
Jul 4	vs MIN	W 4-1	5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 95.6 mph
Jun 29	vs WSH	W 3-1	5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 96.6 mph
Jun 24	@ TEX	L 0-10	5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 2 BB	Avg FB 96.3 mph
Jun 19	@ MIA	L 1-2	4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 97.0 mph
Jun 15	@ STL	L 2-10	6.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K, 3 BB	Avg FB 96.3 mph
Jun 11	vs TOR	W 8-1	5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 97.3 mph
Jun 7	@ NYY	L 1-10	4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 1 BB	Avg FB 97.2 mph

Percentile rankings

xERA

xwOBA Against

BB%

Whiff%

FB Velocity

Hard-Hit% Against

Spin Rate

30-day rolling trends

Rolling ERA vs xERA

ERAxERA

Rolling Hard-Hit% Against

Rolling FB Velocity

Rolling Stuff Index

Rolling Whiff%

Pitch

Usage

Velo

vs 2025

Velo pctl

Spin

IVB

4-Seam FastballNEW

33.1%

96.5lg 94.5

—

8071

2257

16.3"lg 15.4

2.6"lg 7.8

SliderNEW

21.4%

88.1lg 86.2

—

7743

2546

4.5"lg 1.5

6.3"lg 4.1

SplitterNEW

14.4%

87.4lg 86.7

—

5872

1593

8.1"lg 3.1

9.8"lg 11.1

SweeperNEW

11.4%

83.0lg 82.5

—

5776

2606

2.2"lg 0.9

15.7"lg 13.7

SinkerNEW

10.8%

95.2lg 94.0

—

7004

2137

14.2"lg 8.4

11.8"lg 15.0

CurveballNEW

8.9%

81.1lg 80.3

—

5712

2639

-7.5"lg -10.3

8.0"lg 8.8

Metric

Family

Actual

Expected

Diff

Percentile

Edge

xERA

ERA vs xERA

Expected vs Actual

7.06

5.21

+1.85

xBA

BA against vs xBA

Expected vs Actual

.316

.272

+.044

xwOBA

wOBA against vs xwOBA

Expected vs Actual

.388

.348

+.040

xSLG

SLG against vs xSLG

Expected vs Actual

.526

.464

+.062

Barrel%

Barrel% against vs league

Quality of Contact

9.6

7.8

+1.8

Hard-Hit%

Hard-Hit% against vs league

Quality of Contact

35.2

38.8

−3.6

Spin Rate

Spin rate vs baseline

Spin

2257

±0

BB%

BB% vs baseline

Discipline

8.0

±0.0

Whiff%

Whiff% vs baseline

Contact

22.3

±0.0

IVB

Induced vertical break vs baseline

Movement

16.3

±0.0

K% vs baseline

Contact

17.7

±0.0

FB Velo

Fastball velo vs baseline

Velocity

96.5

±0.0

Horiz. Break

Horizontal break vs baseline

Movement

2.6

±0.0

xBABIP

BABIP against vs xBABIP

Expected vs Actual

.281

+.000

Date

Opponent

Result

Line

Jul 20

vs PIT

W 4-3

4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K, 3 BB

Jul 14

vs CLE

L 4-9

4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K, 1 BB

Jul 10

@ SF

W 4-0

4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 1 BB

Jul 4

vs MIN

W 4-1

5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K, 3 BB

Jun 29

vs WSH

W 3-1

5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Jun 24

@ TEX

L 0-10

5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 2 BB

Jun 19

@ MIA

L 1-2

4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB

Jun 15

@ STL

L 2-10

6.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K, 3 BB

Jun 11

vs TOR

W 8-1

5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K, 1 BB

Jun 7

@ NYY

L 1-10

4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 1 BB