Andrew Abbott
SPQualifiedCincinnati Reds · NL · Age 27 · Bats L / Throws L · 111.0 IP · 481 BF
↓ Negative regressionSELLRank 117 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
20
+9.9 last 7 days
HOLDProduction matches the underlying process.
Most likely driver: command erosion — losing the zone, not the stuff (49% confidence).Mechanical flag: arm angle +3.9°.
W-L
5-6
SV
0
IP
111.0
K
90
BB
50
ERA
3.89
WHIP
1.40
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.59
xwOBA.329
xBA.255
xSLG.415
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.89
wOBA.318
BA.247
SLG.398
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA−0.7028
wOBA against vs xwOBA−.01135
BA against vs xBA−.00839
SLG against vs xSLG−.01735
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 46.3%(−0.9) | 92.6lg 94.5 | −0.2 | 2050 | 2346 | 16.7"lg 15.4 | 6.8"lg 7.8 |
| Sweeper | 20.7%(+3.3) | 82.2lg 82.5 | −0.5 | 4534 | 2854 | -1.1"lg 0.9 | 14.0"lg 13.7 |
| Changeup | 18.0%(−1.6) | 85.9lg 86.6 | +1.1 | 3793 | 1980 | 9.2"lg 4.1 | 14.5"lg 14.0 |
| Curveball | 13.3%(+1.8) | 79.7lg 80.3 | −0.9 | 3924 | 2801 | -7.2"lg -10.3 | 9.0"lg 8.8 |
| Cutter | 1.7%(−2.6) | 88.5lg 89.5 | −0.1 | 3628 | 2612 | —lg 7.9 | —lg 2.4 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm Angle +3.9°
Arm slot
88 pctl · +3.9° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
40
xwOBA Against
40
K%
25
BB%
28
Whiff%
29
FB Velocity
23
Hard-Hit% Against
57
Spin Rate
66
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%