Adrian Morejon
RPQualifiedSan Diego Padres · NL · Age 27 · Bats L / Throws L · 52.0 IP · 213 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 5 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
49
+7.5 last 7 days
BUYThe process is ahead of the results — whiff% vs baseline: 34.1 actual vs 23.8 deserved.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (46% confidence).
W-L
7-2
SV
1
IP
52.0
K
59
BB
13
ERA
3.46
WHIP
1.12
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA2.49
xwOBA.246
xBA.214
xSLG.290
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA3.46
wOBA.258
BA.228
SLG.305
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+0.9779
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.01266
BA against vs xBA+.01468
SLG against vs xSLG+.01557
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 44.6%(−17.2) | 99.5lg 94.0 | +1.8 | 9905 | 2409 | 9.1"lg 8.4 | 15.7"lg 15.0 |
| Changeup | 20.7%(+14.1) | 92.0lg 86.6 | +1.5 | 9671 | 1074 | -0.4"lg 4.1 | 11.2"lg 14.0 |
| Slider | 20.2%(−4.4) | 89.2lg 86.2 | +1.7 | 8907 | 2896 | -0.5"lg 1.5 | 5.6"lg 4.1 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 14.5%(+11.3) | 99.2lg 94.5 | +2.7 | 9862 | 2454 | 15.3"lg 15.4 | 5.4"lg 7.8 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
61 pctl · −1.7° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
96
xwOBA Against
96
K%
85
BB%
88
Whiff%
96
FB Velocity
99
Hard-Hit% Against
89
Spin Rate
87
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%