Aaron Nola
SPQualifiedPhiladelphia Phillies · NL · Age 33 · Bats R / Throws R · 103.0 IP · 452 BF
↑ Positive regressionBUYRank 21 of 617 pitchers by opportunity score
Opportunity Score
39
+2.1 last 7 days
BUYThe process is ahead of the results — slg against vs xslg: .510 actual vs .423 deserved.
Most likely driver: era overstates the problem — results behind the process (65% confidence).
W-L
3-7
SV
0
IP
103.0
K
108
BB
35
ERA
5.68
WHIP
1.45
Edge breakdown
Expected
What the batted-ball quality deserves
xERA4.20
xwOBA.316
xBA.244
xSLG.423
xBABIP.281
Actual
What the scoreboard says
ERA5.68
wOBA.360
BA.278
SLG.510
BABIP.281
Difference
Actual − expected · percentile of the gap
ERA vs xERA+1.4885
wOBA against vs xwOBA+.04488
BA against vs xBA+.03483
SLG against vs xSLG+.08789
BABIP against vs xBABIP+.00050
Arsenal & pitch shapes
2026 usage, velocity, and movement per pitch · dashed ring = league average for that pitch type · movement in inches, pitcher's perspective
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | vs 2025 | Velo pctl | Spin | IVB | HB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curveball | 34.3%(+5.2) | 78.2lg 80.3 | ±0.0 | 2674 | 2615 | -10.4"lg -10.3 | 14.7"lg 8.8 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 23.4%(−6.9) | 92.2lg 94.5 | +0.3 | 1540 | 2345 | 14.6"lg 15.4 | 13.0"lg 7.8 |
| Sinker | 19.8%(+2.0) | 91.6lg 94.0 | +0.9 | 1635 | 2257 | 8.2"lg 8.4 | 17.5"lg 15.0 |
| Changeup | 14.0%(−1.4) | 85.5lg 86.6 | +0.6 | 3085 | 1550 | 2.7"lg 4.1 | 14.3"lg 14.0 |
| Cutter | 7.3%(±0.0) | 86.1lg 89.5 | −0.1 | 848 | 2287 | 7.5"lg 7.9 | 0.7"lg 2.4 |
| Slider | 1.2% | 83.2lg 86.2 | — | 1283 | 2312 | —lg 1.5 | —lg 4.1 |
IVB = induced vertical break (rise vs gravity-only). HB = horizontal break. Velo percentile is against all pitchers throwing the same pitch type. Sources: Savant pitch arsenals & movement leaderboards.
Mechanics Watch
2026 in gold · 2025 dashed · thin ticks = league average
Arm slot
9 pctl · −0.1° vs prior
What this can't see: Joint kinetics, hip-shoulder separation, and kinematic sequencing (Hawkeye/KinaTrax, team-internal — never estimated here). Stance angle and foot separation (Savant visuals only, no export). Release extension (column exported empty; needs pitch-level ingest).
Recent games
Percentile rankings
xERA
53
xwOBA Against
53
K%
66
BB%
71
Whiff%
74
FB Velocity
18
Hard-Hit% Against
41
Spin Rate
65
30-day rolling trends
Rolling ERA vs xERA
ERAxERA
Rolling Hard-Hit% Against
Rolling FB Velocity
Rolling Stuff Index
Rolling Whiff%