Valente Bellozo
11 IP · sample confidence ×0.3 · full player page
1 · What changed (2026 vs 2025)
Moving against him
xERA+6.270
xwOBA against+.125
ERA+2.940
wOBA against+.080
Hard-hit against+8.6%
Barrel against+3.9%
First-pitch strike−6.6%
In his favor / neutral
Walk rate+8.0%
Arm angle−8.8°
Fastball spin−78 rpm
Ground-ball rate−3.9%
2 · Why — ranked hypotheses
1. Command erosion — losing the zone, not the stuff
18%Causal path: Swing/pitch mechanics → Swing decisions → Actual outcomes
- • Walk rate +8.0% vs last season
- • First-pitch strike −6.6% vs last season
- • Fastball velocity −0.4 mph vs last season(stuff intact isolates command)
- • Chase rate −5.0% vs last season
2. Spin down more than velocity — grip/feel or ball-in-hand change
12%Causal path: Pitch stuff (velo/spin/shape) → Contact rate → Expected outcomes
- • Fastball spin −78 rpm vs last season
- • Fastball velocity −0.4 mph vs last season(velocity held while spin fell)
Against / absent: d_ivb_fb (no data)
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 70% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
3 · What the coach does tomorrow
Command bullpen: target ladders, first-pitch-strike emphasis
Standard progression when walks rise while stuff holds.
Bullpen focused on repeating release height/side
Command and shape erosion often share a root: release variance. Measurable in one session.
Video review, current vs last season, synced at contact
Compare side views at contact point. Public data flags the fingerprint; video confirms or rejects the mechanical story before anything is changed.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
Data gaps
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.