Sam Haggerty
47 PA · sample confidence ×0.34 · full player page
1 · What changed (2026 vs 2025)
Moving against him
Hard-hit rate−35.0%
xwOBA−.122
xSLG−.181
SLG−.188
xBA−.093
wOBA−.121
Avg exit velocity−4.9 mph
AVG−.094
Sweet-spot rate−9.9%
Max exit velocity−4.6 mph
Chase rate+6.7%
Fast-swing rate−13.1%
Squared-up rate−6.5%
Whiff rate+5.5%
Bat speed−1.6 mph
Barrel rate−2.4%
In his favor / neutral
Strikeout rate+13.7%
Avg launch angle+9.8°
Walk rate−4.5%
Fly-ball rate+3.9%
Opposite-field rate−3.2%
2 · Why — ranked hypotheses
1. Genuine bat-speed decline (strength, health, or age)
21%Causal path: Strength / conditioning → Bat speed → Contact quality → Expected outcomes
- • Bat speed −1.6 mph vs last season
- • Avg exit velocity −4.9 mph vs last season
- • Max exit velocity −4.6 mph vs last season
- • Hard-hit rate −35.0% vs last season
- • Fast-swing rate −13.1% vs last season
Cannot distinguish strength loss from sub-clinical injury with public data — flag for training staff, do not self-diagnose.
2. Plate-discipline erosion — expanding the zone
19%Causal path: Swing decisions → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Chase rate +6.7% vs last season
- • Walk rate −4.5% vs last season
- • Strikeout rate +13.7% vs last season
Against / absent: Zone contact −1.4% vs last season
3. Approach change — selling out for pull-side power
14%Causal path: Swing decisions → Batted-ball profile → Actual outcomes
- • Avg launch angle +9.8° vs last season
- • Strikeout rate +13.7% vs last season
- • AVG −.094 vs last season
Against / absent: Pull rate +2.8% vs last season · Barrel rate −2.4% vs last season
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 46% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
3 · What the coach does tomorrow
Flag to strength and training staff for workload/strength review
Public data cannot separate strength loss, fatigue, or sub-clinical injury — that determination belongs to staff with medical context.
Track bat speed weekly against this baseline
Establishes whether the decline is a trend or a blip before intervening.
Video review, current vs last season, synced at contact
Compare side views at contact point. Public data flags the fingerprint; video confirms or rejects the mechanical story before anything is changed.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
Data gaps
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.