Otto Kemp
27 PA · sample confidence ×0.26 · full player page
1 · What changed (2026 vs 2025)
Moving against him
SLG−.331
wOBA−.189
xSLG−.197
AVG−.154
xwOBA−.105
xBA−.069
Squared-up rate−6.0%
Fast-swing rate−10.6%
Sweet-spot rate−5.3%
Chase rate+4.2%
Whiff rate+3.6%
Bat speed−1.3 mph
In his favor / neutral
Pull rate−30.6%
Opposite-field rate+30.6%
Ground-ball rate−16.5%
Strikeout rate+6.3%
Zone contact+5.6%
Swing rate−3.0%
2 · Why — ranked hypotheses
1. Plate-discipline erosion — expanding the zone
13%Causal path: Swing decisions → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Chase rate +4.2% vs last season
- • Strikeout rate +6.3% vs last season
- • Zone contact +5.6% vs last season(in-zone contact intact isolates the problem to decisions)
Against / absent: Walk rate −1.8% vs last season
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 87% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
3 · What the coach does tomorrow
Pitch-recognition sessions (occluded video or spin-recognition reps)
Standard training for chase-rate problems; targets the decision, not the swing.
Controlled-take rounds in BP (swing only at middle-middle)
Classic zone-discipline reset; rebuilds the take muscle without mechanical interference.
Post-game zone chart review with the player
Show the chase locations from the data; awareness precedes adjustment.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
Data gaps
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.